Wolraich: Obama at the Gates of... Gates
Dr. C: In Praise of Writing Binges
Maiello: Gatsby Doesn't Grate
In my opinion it's way too early to conclude that Romney's fund raising video is a "game changer". While Romney's comments are reprehensible, the media coverage so far does not parse the victims to include the 50% of Republicans in red states who are low income and don't pay taxes---but distributes 100% of these folks to the Obama camp. Thus, on the media surface, Romney was correct. A lot of people pay no federal income taxes and they all vote for Obama. What else is new?
I am not impressed by the way Democrats are addressing the video. Democrats have not properly responded to the "47% pay no taxes" charge in the past and I can't see that their response to this video so far has improved their messaging. So to turn this video into a game changer, Democrats need to improve their attacks. "Romney wrote off the 47%" doesn't, imo, move the needle.
So where is the game change? Among Republicans? I don't think so. The 46% who have been with him since May will still be there tomorrow---look at the graphs at Real Clear Politics, it's a 46% ceiling.
If you look at Hispanics and Independents, Romney's comments are astonishing: "I would have a better chance if I were Mexican." Plus---"...Independents vote on "emotions", whether they like this guy or that guy". Think about that statement. In addition to insulting Independents who simply vote their emotions ( instead of their rational consideration of issues), Romney is giving himself an out based on the "likability" factor.
So, will new Independent converts move Romney's numbers? I doubt it. How many un-decideds are there? Will they even go to the polls?
I was most struck by the numbers Romney used---"47% , then 48, then 49, then er"---uh oh, if Obama gets to 50.000001 Obama wins. Bad example. As far as "arithmetic" is concerned, if Obama gets 49%, Romney needs to win 99% of the Independents to become President. Why would smart business-guy donors fork over money for such a mathematically impossible result? Is it any wonder that financial industry types who are contributing to Romney by and large think Obama will win?
To my mind the worse part of Romney's 46% gaffe is that his remarks are the hall marks of a loser, his comments being more representative of a concession speech than of a man who is prepared to win.
It seems that #46 is Romney's ticket---too bad it's not a country club raffle, he'd have more of a chance to win something there than in a contest to win the Presidency.