Exit Strategy?

    The second of three debates between Romney and President Obama is in the books.  The instant post-debate polls all had Obama winning.  Nevertheless, Rasmussen and Gallup have now published their first tracking polls which include data compiled after the thrill(a) at Hofstra(uh) and they ain't pretty.  Gallup shows Romney up among likely voters 52-45 (7 points!) and Rasmussen has Romney up 49-47.  The Thursday data moved both polls 1 point towards Romney. 

    Right after the debate, CNN announced that debate watchers rated Romney better by a significant margin on the budget deficit, economy, and taxes.  John King's response was that if those numbers were accurate and held up, Romney would win the election.  Immediately prior to the second debate Republican consultant Alex Castellanos posted a piece titled Can Obama Stop a Romney Victory?  Castellanos wrote the following:


    It takes only a moment to reveal feebleness. It requires many to reestablish certainty. One good debate tonight will help re-energize Obama's base but not our country's confidence in him.

    Whether victory belongs to Romney or Obama, we do not know but this cake may be baked: The Denver debate may have eradicated the opportunity for both candidates to change the outcome of this election.

    Mitt Romney may have already won this election: Even if the president has a strong performance tonight, he . . . failed us in Denver.


    My perception, while watching and immediately after the Denver debate, was similar to Castellanos'.  The apparently split reaction of debate watchers who awarded the second tilt to Obama but prefer Romney on specific issues becomes comprehensible.  A tiny majority of Americans may have decided Romney will be a better President even if they gave debate II to Obama on points and that majority may no longer be reachable.

    So what do we do?  Well we should still do everything we can to try to stem what may not be inevitable but we should also put together an exit strategy.  Here are four suggestions for surviving under a Romney/Ryan/Limbaugh/Beck regime:

    1)  Do not reproduce.  Children are very expensive (average cost in America over the first 21 years is north of $500,000), carbon consumers, and always precious to their parents.  A Romney economy will continue the impoverishment of the middle-class.  You are not likely to be able to afford children in light of the increasing wealth and income gap between the top .1% and the ever poorer everybody else.  Even if you are fortunate enough to have the resources to provide all the necessities and then some to your kids, their actions, and yours while raising them, will contribute greatly to the worsening climate crisis caused by carbon burning.  Undoubtedly, a Republican administration will do everything possible to keep you and your family dependent on the internal combustion engine and fossil fuels.  Finally, the world into which you will be bringing new life is a poor sad imitation of the one into which you were born.  Anticipating the dirty grey ashtray of a planet that your offspring will have to navigate is going to be unbearably painful.  If you want children, the answer is simple, adopt.  At least you'll be bringing light to an existing human life rather than bringing more onto our sorely overtaxed spheroid.

    2)  Hunker down.  Spend only on necessities and then do so as wisely as possible.  Your likely future ranges from the status quo (at best) to downright bleak.  So, conserve resources and stay out of debt.  If you lose your job you may not be able to get another one.  Having money in the bank and low housing costs may save you from falling into poverty.  Because jobs will be at a premium for the forseeable future, employers will have tremendous leverage over you.  They will be able to demand that you work longer hours for less pay knowing that you have very few alternatives.  Having a nest egg and no dependents may give you the freedom to leave an abusive work environment.

    3)  Give and take joy where you can.  Although there is less beauty in the world and there will be much less if Romney/Ryan are elected, we can still appreciate the touch of a loved one.  There remain lovely somewhat untouched natural places where we may walk gently.  Poetry and music still can touch our hearts.

    4)  Don't go gently into that good night.  Wherever and whenever possible, try to muck up the right-wing works.  Participate in pro-democracy movements to the extent you can.  Engage conservatives in conversation and, as their lives worsen due to the policies enacted by the politicians for whom they voted, point out as gently as you can how they helped tear our house down.

    I wish us all well.



    After the first debate they said it would take at least three days to see affects in the polls.  Listening to callers on Cspan which is totally random I do think that the president did not address many of Romney's economic claims in the second debate which left him looking/sounding better than he is on the economy.

    However it seems now that much energy is shifting toward the ground game as people get turned off by advertisements and don't want to watch/hear anymore of them...

    The positive Morgan Freeman ad and perhaps a postiive economic reminder from Clinton, and positive/fun reminders for women on issue of women's rights are probably all they can send out right now in ads. 

    The dems just hired my daughter as a field manager for GOTV in the Denver area.  Women will make the difference in this election.   Knocking on doors and making personal phone calls will help the president and other dems win.

    GOTV - the ground game is where this is going to be won in places like NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, and VA. 

    A big question in my mind is just how many of those who still haven't made up their minds yet are going to stand in line for two hours to vote.  Voter turn out overall in 2010 fell well below 50% from 2008. The side that can get their side to show up closer to the 2008 numbers than the 2010 numbers will win in those swing states.

    An upside will be the vast American right wing will not raise a peep of complaint if a GOP Iran War sends gas to $10+/gallon, if tax cuts with few spending cuts gives us stagflation on steroids and the deficit climbs nearer to $2 trillion/year, and finally, with the country virtually broke after 30 years of trickle down economics and tax cuts for the wealthy, the nation and most of the population are near broke, so there is little left for the snake oil swindlers to steal, except our lives, which they will try to take by cutting Medicare//Medicaid and ending ACA.

    Mitt's sons may also have a harder time flimflamming the Teabircher palookas, although they will, as usual, be ripe for 'sure bet' double your money investment scams, they will have less money to play with in a Romney economy. 

    Tagg Romney seems to have ducked out of Solamere Advisors, which ThinkProgress reported has brokers who sold fraudulent CD's connected with the Stanford Ponzi scheme, Mitt had invested some millions in Solamere to get it going. Of course it's easier to get away with fraud when your Daddy is in the White House, or is VP, ask Neal Bush, or brother Jeb, Neal's bank failure, Silverado, cost the government over $1 billion, Jeb lobbied for a multi-hundred million dollar fraudulent Florida based Medicare scammer named Miguel Recarey in the 80's. Expect more of the same with Republicans back in power.

    Recent Nation report on Mitt and Tagg Romney investments with Solamere, a firm employing former brokers involved with the massive $8 billion Stanford Ponzi scheme for which Allen Stanford is now in prison.

    I know, these polls are scaring the hell out of me!

    I am always caught in the sports paradigm.

    I hate the Tigers, but I am watching them kick the hell out of the Yankees; I mean this is wonderful!

    I wish my side to win and I am stuck in these prognostications and I am helpless, helpless, helpless!

    Nineteen days.

    I already went into this issue concerning reproduction. hahahahahaha

    An Immodest Proposal actually. hahahahah

    I know that when the repubs took over all of these legislatures and then doubled down with idiot or evil gubernatorialships that we would lose soooooo very much!

    If Romney wins all will not be lost; but most of my ideal of America will be lost!

    I am rambling....as usual.

    New NBC poll. O up 8 in Iowa, up 6 in Wisconsin.

    To quote Emily Littella - "never mind."  To undermine further my argument in favor of pessimism, here's what Nate Silver wrote about the Gallup poll showing Romney up by 7: 


    The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Wednesday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters. Mr. Romney’s advantage grew further, to seven points, when Gallup updated its numbers on Thursday afternoon.

    The Gallup poll is accounted for in the forecast model, along with all other state and national surveys.

    However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

    Because Gallup’s polls usually take large sample sizes, statistical variance alone probably cannot account these sorts of shifts. It seems to be an endemic issue with their methodology.

    To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.

    The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around.  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/


    Nate Silver and Articleman both have Obama ahead right now.  Without any doubt, their opinions are more expert than mine. I hope desperately that they are right and that the President has a good day in Boca on Monday!

    Hal, I like you a lot so I'm just going to tell myself that you just forgot to categorize this post under the topic of "satire" or "humor" or "permitted-among-friends fretting", instead of "politics". 

    Because otherwise...sheesh, it reads to me like a caricature of the phenomenon of Democratic "it's over, we're cooked, stick a fork in us" defeatism.  Those who characterize Democrats as typically like that exaggerate a good deal, based on my experiences anyway.  In my experiences, yes, progressive activists do worry a good deal--but rarely in a way or to a degree that is self-paralyzing.  And often the worrying is a driver of more in the way of commitment or activity, not less. 


    Latest Comments