Coming February 6, 2024 . . .
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
Coming February 6, 2024 . . . MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Josh Marshall has done a really nice job over the last couple of weeks covering the complex national election taking place in Israel. This is Josh's latest piece, centered on slow but steady recent increases in support for Herzog's Zionist Union Coalition (which combines Herzog's Labor and Tzipi Lipni's Kadima parties) to the point where he looks to be the front runner by about three or four seats in the popular vote. Israel's president Rivlin will then decide which of the candidates is most likely to perform a governing coalition. And then the fun begins. With a lead of the current magnitude for Herzog over Netanyahu, and because of the general state of things (both with the domestic economy and because at some point enough Israelis will not accept poor US relations), Rivlin would have grounds to let Herzog try first. Rivlin and Bibi have a history btw. The only reason to hesitate is because the ability to build a coalition depends on how all of the other parties did and what they are willing to accept to become part of a coalition. It is a web of chaos and likely to take a couple of months to resolve.
Comments
I've been finding it easier to follow Israel's election with Twitter as home base. Here's a tweet by Anshel Pfeffer, a well-known journalist for Haaretz, and he links to an article for those wanting to understand the process by Shmuel Rosner.
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 03/12/2015 - 8:37pm
Thanks for the link. I read it later tonight. I am still helping with math home work. He also finished a science project this evening so we are running late.
by trkingmomoe on Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:05pm
Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
If he's tossed out on his ear (ouch!) will the Republicans bring in the other guy for a do-over, send a new letter to the mullahs (mullahgan anyone?) saying not only are Presidential treaties not forever, neither are Israeli sentiments carved in stone?
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 1:49am
Apparently no polling is permitted between now and the election on Tuesday, but this apparently is the final poll showing that Herzog has a four-seat lead over Netanyahu -- which as stated above, is likely to give him first crack to form a coalition. This could become very interesting. Note that the final poll seems to predict that a joint coalition of Israeli Arab parties are likely to be the 3rd highest bloc.
by Bruce Levine on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 3:46pm
by Bruce Levine on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 3:57pm
Most of the Haaretz columnists, including Chemi Shalev, who I believe is their DC guy, seem to be enjoying watching the Bibi campaign unravel. And I thought the above tweet was fabulous because for once we see a Jewish guy Bibi alleging an international conspiracy against him through the media!
by Bruce Levine on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 4:08pm
Please keep us posted. You are right this is getting interesting. I have never thought about how they do their elections. Thanks.
by trkingmomoe on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 4:16pm
The main problem will be establishing a majority coalition (61 seats). Herzog would start with whatever his coalition with Lipni gets and whatever the more left-wing Mertz receives. But that will get him to about the half-way mark, give or take. Then it gets tough.
by Bruce Levine on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 6:26pm
From what I understand, the majority of the Israeli people are more concerned about issues closer to home, like a sagging economy, housing shortage, etc., than international ones like Iran. They are also critical of Bibi's handling of US-Israeli relations. I saw something recently that described campaigning tactics being used by his opponents as more "American" style - grass roots, door-to-door. My from-a-distance take is that the electorate has changed significantly in recent years, and Netanyahu's politics are wearing thin.
Should he lose power, what (if anything) do you think will change on the world stage? Israel holds much influence and power, so I wonder how a shift in their government would affect circumstances as they currently are.
by barefooted on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 5:41pm
Excellent question, thanks, because I've thought quite a bit about what the election means if Bibi does lose. To your first question, while security is always an issue for Israeli voters, by most accounts it is totally the economy for a huge swath of the population. Second, regardless of whether Israelis are enamored of any particular U.S. president, they do not like it when things are bad generally with the relationship, and things right now are bad as ever between the American president and the Israeli prime minister. So conditions are ripe for change, but the real picture will emerge once Israel's president begins the second phase of the process, and most observers to my knowledge continue to believe that Bibi would have an easier time forming a coalition in the end.
Second, if Herzog wins, as I wrote above, I have been thinking about what it will mean quite a bit. Here's what I think. In Washington, Democratic legislators will breathe a sigh of relief because they will anticipate far less situations where they find themselves in the middle of a dispute between the president and the Israeli prime minister. And the temperature will undoubtedly go down in that sense. Just having a new ambassador that will replace Dermer will help matters. But the reality is that when it comes to foreign policy matters, both with respect to Iran and the I-P peace process, there is little substantive difference between Herzog and Bibi. We just might read about less squabbling, because Herzog is more likely to express his views privately, etc.
For a growing portion of the democratic base that has become increasingly critical of Israeli policies generally and particularly with respect to the I-P conflict, I'm not sure if it matters one way or another who the prime minister is. I could be wrong about that but I'm not sure why one would predict otherwise.
So what do I think? If the president is determined to rekindle negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and if it doesn't work out for whatever reason (and there are many reasons why negotiations are highly unlikely to go anywhere), then I think there will be a change, but it's a change that will come from the president, and it will not matter who becomes prime minister. The president will end his efforts with the publication of what the United States, and perhaps the EU and others consider to be a framework for a final settlement for a two-state solution. All highly speculative, but it makes sense.
by Bruce Levine on Fri, 03/13/2015 - 6:56pm
So much to share with two days left before Israelis go to the polls for the first round of the election process. For those with a passing interest in what's going on, but who want to stay informed, I link to two of Josh Marshall's latest updates, highlighting among other things emerging internal divisions in Likud of the sort that American voters may recall happening in both the McCain and Romney campaigns as their respective prospects for victory dimmed. On the other hand, Josh reminds us that this is a two-step process, and chances continue to remain high that in the end Bibi probably will have an advantage in terms of his ability to form a majority coalition and remain as prime minister.
And for those who have more than a passing interest in the Israeli election, there is an embarrassment of riches in terms of what has been written just in the last few days. One of my favorite commentators on the right on the the Middle East over the years is Jonathan Tobin, who writes for Commentary. Tobin manages to pinpoint many issues I have had over the year's with my own party's foreign policy, and certainly now at the moment with respect to Iran, but in the end he also never fails to remind me why I could never support and never become a member of what has become of the "Party of Lincoln". I offer this piece from Tobin because of his candid assessment of Bibi's speech and its political impact. Unlike most of his conservative colleagues, I admired Tobin's consistency in urging Netanyahu and Boehner to cancel the speech before Congress. Here, Tobin addresses the question of whether, if Bibi loses, it was the speech that put the final nail in his political coffin.
Somehow Jeffrey Goldberg just keeps on landing amazing and timely interviews. This morning's Atlantic website includes Goldberg's interview with Michael Oren, who preceded Ron Dermer as Israel's ambassador to the United States under Netanyahu. Oren left Likud and is running with the new Kulanu party, which is led and headed by an Israeli of Libyan descent named Mohshe Kahlon. Kahlon also left Likud and formed the center-right Kulanu Party, for which Oren now serves as foreign policy guru and is running on the fourth slot of the Kulanu bloc, which is expected to win approximately eight seats, and which could turn out to be kingmaker in the coalition-stage of the election process. Oren was born and raised in the United States (Joisey) and moved to Israel, I believe, as a young adult. He is an historian who is taught at several American universities, written several books about the Middle East, and just has such a keen insight into the complex and evolving relationship between Israel and the United States.
Oren explains that Israel, as the junior partner in the relationship, is the party that must be proactive in fixing the damage caused by Netanyahu in the relationship between the two countries. And he is realistic about the evolving relationship between the two countries as well. He captured how I felt to a tee, for example, when I first heard how one of my idols, civil rights icon Representative John Lewis of Georgia, announced that he would not attend Bibi's speech. Here's Oren on Lewis and also the need for Israel as junior partner to make things right with the US.
And finally, here's a link to a piece by Mirabelle Ward, an American
formerrecovered lawyer who now, among other things, writes for a blog called Israellycool. She describes herself as a "zionist in exile", and she has a particular affinity for Sun Valley, Idaho. I have come to read her regularly, and I identify with much of what she writes because she seems to have "grown up" in the same sort of sort of intellectual milieu that many of us grew up in as well, and I think that experience adds some weight to what she writes. I link to Ms. Ward here because of her excellent overview of what I often refer to as the "tough love" approach towards Israel taken by the president since 2009. Agree with her or not, it's worth a read.by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 12:17pm
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 2:28pm
Link to tweet above by Josh Marshall that just blows your mind. Likud, feigning ignorance, appears to be doing the "Obama is a Muslim" thing. Wow.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 2:30pm
Here's how those Muslim dancing harem women work it in the White House.
Likud's really taking a bad idea and turning it into a leap off a cliff. Of course the GOP will eat it up, but for the reality-based faction out there, this may cause some questioning of just how mentally stable Israeli's leadership is. And then Bibi lashes out at that left-wing money flowing in. Quite the month - curious what Israeli voters think. Is it Bibi or Bye-bye?
Not sure I understand the V15 anti-Netanyahu relationship - did they do the calling hoping to help Bibi just this once, or was it a Bibi-focused Likud-backing group?
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:10pm
One thing Likud seems to be doing is trying to appeal in ugly ways to those to even its extreme right who are now leaning towards someone like Bennett's ultra-right wing Jewish Home Party. Not sure, but again we have to see what happens in the second stage, even if Herzog/Livni come in first in the popular vote. That's when it becomes horse trading. Two things to keep in mind I think: 1. President Rivlin and maybe others would like a "unity coalition" like Peres did with Shamir (I think) back in the 80s. I don't think that's in the cards but what do I know? 2. whatever is going on with V 15, at this point I think it is fair to say that Israelis are very much aware of the president's absolute dislike (fair word???) of Netanyahu, and as much as they might distrust the president on core issues like Iran, they do want the president and the prime minister to get along and to express disagreements to each other as allies ordinarily do.
Edited just to add that I think it is fair to say that the relationship with the president is, all things equal, is considered to be of key importance to the country's national security.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:13pm
Is the electorate so easy to scare off just by saying "leftist-leftist-leftist"?
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:13pm
From what I understand at this point it is directed at trying to get hard right wing extremists to vote Likud instead of the more extreme parties. I think that's what it is going on anyway, good question.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:15pm
Or simply GOTV, worrying the extremes might not vote without fear-mongering, but I'd figure everyone votes in Israel anyway - but just looked it up, voter turnout is quite a bit lower than 15 years ago.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:20pm
Interesting stats. Could be wrong, but I think it's more directed at folks who are going to vote, but there pissed from his right, that he didn't build enough settlements or piss off the world enough, etc.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:27pm
Ah, the "hold-my-breath-till-I-turn-blue" crowd.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:31pm
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:37pm
Here's Josh Marshall again with some great background on former Israeli Prime Minister Levi Eshkol, who was Israel's PM for much of the 60s, including during the June 1967 war. Herzog, when asked what PM he'd most like to emulate said it would be Eshkol.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:41pm
Lead from the cerebrum rather than the adrenalin glands or gonads? wonder how it'll play in Peoria...
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:54pm
Stay tuned. If anything, it's a nice compliment to March Madness, no?
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 4:56pm
"complement", but yes, especially for one who avoids sports - except for blood sports.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 5:02pm
Just to whack my knuckles for my spelling.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 5:12pm
Counts as a blood sport, no? your turn...
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 5:22pm
Hope this isn't too much, but it's timed with procrastination and lots of good stuff to read. So here's a fun fact. "Buji" Isaac Herzog is the grandson of Ireland's first chief rabbi. His father was Israel's president in the 80s, and he spoke with a melodious Irish brogue.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 5:21pm
So he hopes to drive the snakes out of Israel? Politics will be so lonely at the top...
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 5:24pm
Isaac Herzog's father, Chaim Herzog, also served as Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations before becoming its president. Here is his speech to the UN General Assembly after it voted in favor of a resolution equating zionism with racism. Purist Irish folks might dispute my characterization of his brogue, but hey:
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 5:25pm
Not to outdo of course America's own Irish speaker on that occasion, the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then US Ambassador to the UN.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/15/2015 - 5:37pm
The generally more conservative (relative to Haaretz anyway) Jerusalem Post is reporting this morning that Likud polls now show that more Israelis believe that Netanyahu will be unable to form a coalition than those who continue believe he will be able to:
by Bruce Levine on Mon, 03/16/2015 - 9:42am
I haven't had this much fun since Petraeus crashed and burned.
Calls for a tune.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 03/16/2015 - 10:23am
We aim to please, and excellent choice, but I need to start making doughnuts or I'm screwed.
by Bruce Levine on Mon, 03/16/2015 - 10:25am
double
by Bruce Levine on Mon, 03/16/2015 - 10:25am
Five things to know about the today's election in Israel:
1. Popular vote too close to call with Herzog with slight lead and momentum when last polls were taken.
2. Popular vote winner may not become prime minister -- must form a coalition of 61. Winner of popular vote is expected to win approximately 25 seats, give or take. .
3. With so many parties, and a ban on polling in the last several days, there is almost always a surprise on Election Day.
4. The unified coalition of Arab parties are expected to do very well (perhaps third highest combined vote total).
5. The process to form a coalition could take several weeks or more.
by Bruce Levine on Mon, 03/16/2015 - 8:39pm
Interesting open letter by Haaretz columnist Sayed Kashua and why he is supporting the Joint Arab list (a coalition of Arab parties running together) rather than Meretz, a left-wing mixed Arab and Jewish party (mostly Jewish), which has the support of his friend and colleague Salman Masalha:
by Bruce Levine on Mon, 03/16/2015 - 8:55pm
PBS on Bibi's reversal of his position on two states. Incredible.
by Bruce Levine on Mon, 03/16/2015 - 9:44pm