cmaukonen's picture

    They keep going and going and going ..........

    I really like the idea of a one world government and maybe in about 400 years humanity will have matured enough to actually get one. Donal did an excellent series on why complex societies collapse with talks by Dr. Tainter.


    This got me thinking (no jokes please) as to why certain societies or rather nation/states seem to go along just fine. With very little internal strife and provide for their citizens pretty well. What is it about them that is different that those that do fall by the wayside ? That appear to get to a certain point and then increasingly become less and less responsive to their citizenry and eventually collapse or get overthrown ?

    I have noticed a certain pattern though.

    • Regardless of the of government they have or start out with, there are nations/states/societies that do collapse.

    • Those that do go through particular stages as outlined by Dr. Tainter and others on the way to collapse.

    • One of the last stages seems to be one where the governing body becomes less and less responsive to the population as a whole channeling more and more of the wealth and resources to those in the upper class. Usually the upper 5%.

    • After they collapse, what is left is split up into separate autonomous nation/states with their own forms of government. Which maybe but usually are not like the original.

    But what is it that seems to keep certain nations/societies from having the political and economic conditions that allow them to continue in a more or less stable manner ?

    Is the the economic system ? I would say no. There are capitalist systems that are very responsive the public and socialist systems as well. The Netherlands was one of the first totally free market capitalist countries in Europe. Having originated the idea of selling stock in corporations. Finland instituted a socialist system from the time they gained independence from Sweden. Cuba is a communist system which has been very responsive to their populace.

    Is it physical size ? Land area ? Well it seems the most stable and responsive countries are the smallest ones. Like The Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Kuwait. But then you also have Canada and Australia. So I would say no to physical size.

    Government ? Well representative democracies are in general more responsive than dictatorships but even this is not a hard and fast rule. India is notoriously unresponsive to a number of peoples in the northern areas especially.

    Culture then ? This is also not a good hard and fast rule. It does appear that those countries with the least cultural diversity are the most responsive to their populations. But then you have Canada and Australia which have a large aboriginal population as well as a large number of immigrants.

    Population then ? I would say no to total population but maybe to population centers. IE metropolitan areas with high concentrations of people. Egypt does not have a very high population but what it does have is concentrated in a small number of metropolitan areas. But I would not say this is for sure the case for unresponsiveness.

    Natural resources then ? Well I bring up The Netherlands and Denmark and Belgium which have few natural resources and are the most responsive. And parts of Central and South America and Africa which have abundant natural resources and are not very responsive.

    Global location then ? Well it does appear that the most responsive counties/nations/societies seem to be the furthest away from the equator. It would be interesting to do an in depth study on this and see it there is a correlation and what in particular that would be.

    I have only just touched on a few areas of thought here. There are of course many others to consider. So be my guest.

    Comments

    The first thing that comes to mind is that the discussion has to separate the inquiry into whether one is talking about nation or states. For those who grow up in countries where the nation and the state grew up together tend to mix the two as being one and the same.  

    When we start discussing one world government the notion of nationalism is definitely one of the big issues.  As the Slovakian breakaway showed, even the modern era the idea that a nation deserves its own state is still strongly held.  And what exactly forms that sense of nation complicates the matter even more (see Israel).

    I have to say I kept expecting you to bring up China at some point.  A nation that took some time to form, but now does seem to finally meet the borders of the states for the most part.  But then there is Taiwan....

    But in terms of collapse, what is our concern?  Are we talking about the conditions of a particular state? or a nation?  if one collective whole globally sees an increase in their standard of living while some of the more wealthy nations see a decrease, is this a good thing?


    I purposely left out China and Russia both because they are each complex issues that one could do an entire blog on each of.  With the relatively recent fall of the Soviet Union and break away from Maoist doctrine in China, they are each evolving now as we speak. Far to early, to my mind, to make any real assessment of their responsiveness.

    Russia especially so since they are only now becoming anything like a stable economic system. After the plundering that went on initially.


    The collapse of the Soviet Union and the resulting outcomes of the autonomous fragments from it can be a life time study for someone trying to figure out the dynamics of collapse.  In the end, I think it brings up a central point that one needs to specify whose interest one is concerned about.  Tainter himself talks about those who benefited from the "collapse" of the Roman Empire. 

    I think in this country the discussion centers on the fate of the American worker - is he or she better off, going to better off, etc.  But there is part of me that asks - should I be more concerned about a worker in Detroit than a worker in Sao Paulo?  Why is the former more important to me than the latter?


    But there is part of me that asks - should I be more concerned about a worker in Detroit than a worker in Sao Paulo?  Why is the former more important to me than the latter?

    BINGO !

    This is the heart of the matter I think. The one question that is center to the tea party revolt - which by the way goes back 40 some odd years. There was a time when states had their own public health and some were quite good. Ohio and Penna just to name two. I know because my mother worked public health for both for a number of years. And each state had their own mutual insurance and health insurance programs that were non-profit and payed nearly all your medical bills. Plus Savings And Loans that with Credit Unions would loan to you at reasonable rates.

    But nearly all this changed first with the civil rights acts that stated that neither of these could reject anyone based on anything and then with Nixon's legislation that killed the mutual insurance by allowing people to make the for profit.

    There was a lot of other things that changed as well. 

    But what I am curious about is not why Rome or anything else went the way it did but why other places did not.


    My own personal opinion is that when one looks at any country in Europe is that the result of WWII showed to everyone at that time, across generations, class, religion, political view etc etc that no matter what you think you have, no matter how independent as individual you think you are, it all can all be taken away in an instant.  And the only thing you can hope for is the generosity of others and a coming together in way that one sees in communities after a natural disaster but thousand fold.  This impacted even the CEOs of the biggest companies, which we now see has faded as their companies become just like the rest.  But culturally, there is an ingrained belief that it takes a village. 

    Those in the East (a Euro perspective) have a much more ingrained view of the collective than those in the West.  So one must take this into consideration.


    Oh I do believe this has a lot to do with it as well. Nothing like being invaded and then having your village bombed to rubble to give one a completely different outlook on life.


    This brings up another good point. The younger generation that is now in power and coming to power has no recollection of the events of the 1930s and 1940s that their predecessors did. To them it's just a couple of paragraphs in some history book that they most likely skipped over.

    So they have little, if anything, to relate too. No direct personal experience so try to explain the ramifications of what they propose is rather pointless. This goes for here as well as there.


    But there is part of me that asks - should I be more concerned about a worker in Detroit than a worker in Sao Paulo?  Why is the former more important to me than the latter?

    Morally there may be no difference. 

    Practically--well, we have had this concept of citizenship where we are all members of an aggregation of people that form a political jurisdiction where we have rights--and, ostensibly, responsibilities that are more defined than they are for humans writ large outside of our country/state/locality.  In theory what you and I share with the worker in Detroit is a government that we can indirectly use to solve or at least seek to ameliorate problems. 

    The citizenship concept seems to mean increasingly little in practice in the United States, which I see increasingly as a kind of grand economic, religious and cultural bazaar where people choose what they want and in most cases go on autopilot when it comes to giving much thought to others or to what would be necessary communally to sustain, let alone, improve, collective arrangements over time (where there is even any awareness that the collective impacts the individual and must be nurtured and protected, a sense the Randians and others with that mindset have done an enormous amount to erode and destroy in this country).  I see this country as one which occasionally rallies together for a short time in the immediate wake of some disaster or attack, post 9/11 or Katrina, as examples.  But otherwise is highly fragmented and disunited.  On the surface that can work for many when the economic system is working tolerably well and where there is perception of enough for all, meaning primarily living-wage jobs. 

    Even when it comes to the traditional scoundrel politicians' tactic of rallying people to the flag for wars when domestic or personal trends prove too unwelcome or embarrassing, there is a growing danger of crying wolf in the US.  We get involved in more and more overseas conflicts which the ordinary citizen questions the relevance and necessity of, but can shrug his shoulders because it's mostly other peoples' kids, volunteers, who do the fighting and dying.  For the most part the ordinary citizen has little or no skin in any of these conflicts.  Meanwhile the pillars and foundations necessary for the maintenance, let alone health, of the collective, erode.

    I'm currently reading a book on collected writings of Eleanor Roosevelt. Some of these naturally contain some of her thinking re the Universal Declaration of Human Rights which she did so much to bring about.  She writes at one point about how in the US we see the "natural" social unit as the family.  She writes that in the hunting and gathering phase of human living the clan was seen as an extended version of the immediate family. 

    Then over the millennia we nominally aggregated into larger units of association, leading eventually to nation-states and countries and even some regional governmental units as in the case of the EU.  And the thinking of idealists such as ER was that if we could learn how to care for one another in increasingly larger aggregations we could move towards including all of humanity as that aggregation, over time.  WIth real, meaningful human rights.  That was the vision anyway.

    About the prospects for that much could be said.  I think the larger environmental and economic context matters a good deal in what the dominant mindset is.  If the economic system in conjunction with the environment and natural resources available is seen as offering potential abundance that is one situation where, potentially, more people can see grounds for hope and optimism about the future. 

    Where that is not seen as the case, on account of failed or disfunctional economic and/or political systems, and growing environmental/resource constraints, it fosters more of a dog-eat-dog outlook less conductive to the kind of fellow feeling probably necessary to some degree for effective community.  Plus I think it is true that where there is no vision, the people perish, and there is no vision being offered by any political or economic or cultural leader today with stature that provides anything like a widespread sense of hope and positive direction for the future.

    I think in the past there was no prospect of humankind doing ourselves in entirely or anything close to that on account of environmental destruction.  So that means we need to view the present and future with a very different lens and mindset than has been the case since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.   

    In the race between humankind's moral evolution versus the technical and environmental and political challenges we face, we are in great danger of failing to rise to these multiple challenges, with the consequences of failing to do so far vaster than in earlier historical times.

    The European social solidarity mindset is impressive to me, warts and all, and even taking into account the relative advantages of smaller national scale and greater homogeneity which tests humankind's ability to accept the other far less than is the case in, say, the US (although with the influx of Muslim immigrants we see the strains that is imposing there).  But it, too, will eventually be vanquished on the national and regional scale in the absence of a reversal of the current trend of humanity polically/socially losing the race against the environmental clock.

    I think your question is a very good one.  I think that the times we live in now require us to look at it in a different way, because we face unprecedented challenges which if not met will, I think, tend to erode the historical distinctions between societies which have figured things out and sustained themselves relatively well, versus those which didn't.


    I see this country as one which occasionally rallies together for a short time in the immediate wake of some disaster or attack, post 9/11 or Katrina, as examples.  But otherwise is highly fragmented and disunited.  On the surface that can work for many when the economic system is working tolerably well and where there is perception of enough for all, meaning primarily living-wage jobs.

    Humm...interesting analysis. And as to above you are correct in this. Once the Crisis is out of the front of the media, it becomes quickly ignored.

    Support for WWII was a continuous PR job. One thing about that war was the amount of resources and time put into the propaganda put out by the government to keep people involved with it and supporting it.

    None of the conflicts that came after garnered the same support. Oh there were those who would support any flag waving military action but there have always been those. But the vast majority of people were at best indifferent towards the the other wars.

    We view disasters as a diversion or even an entertainment. A media event with no real deep emotional connection or empathy toward those that are experiencing them so our support is weak at best.


    should I be more concerned about a worker in Detroit than a worker in Sao Paulo?  Why is the former more important to me than the latter?

    A society survives and prospers thanks to people not asking those questions, thanks to a sense of empathy, common interest and mutual duty. You lose those, you lose your society. If one starts casting about for a theoretical - prudential, deontological - reason to feel this way about a worker in Detroit, its already pretty much a lost cause, and we're reduced to doing a post-mortem analysis of the fall of a society, a zombie civilization.


    The flip side is: why should one have to cast about for a reason to feel that way about a worker in Sao Paulo? If you consider that we are already effectively a global civilization, then Another Trope's question becomes that much more relevant.

    IMO, the problem is that we have much less capability of impact for the worker in Sao Paulo. If his employer wants to take advantage of him by paying him 5% what he'd have to pay the worker in Detroit, what recourse do we have to help him? In turn, what does that mean for the worker in Detroit?


    I'm not following you, or you're not following me, VA. One of those two.

    So I'll try again. My point was that you don't manufacture empathy and a sense of mutual duty - that gooey sentimental glue that holds a society together - out of prudential or otherwise theoretical reasons. So imo the viability of a society depends on us all having stronger mutual feelings for our fellow countrymen than for foreigners. We feel personally implicated, motivated, or if we fail, somewhat shameful, over tragedies like Katrina. And we do so out of a bond forged from a shared history, a shared culture, a shared national discourse, the interaction and exchange of ideas, goods, services, etc. Or if we were a viable society, we would. The fact that we don't feel that way, that the potential for a bunch of Libyan being forced to flee their homes moves us so much more than things like the fact that a quarter of US families with children are facing food shortages. As you suggest, this is made all the crazier by the fact that we are much more able to do something about the latter than the former.

    Sure, given globalization - both economic and cultural - we now feel much closer to the worker in Sao Paolo than we used to, but I'm concerned about the difference there still needs to be in sentimental attachment between members of a family and members of a comunity, between members of a community and members of town, members of a town and members of a nation, and so on. The smaller building blocks of mutual bonds need to be stronger than the larger blocks that they go to constitute.

    Hope this doesn't sound like gibberish still ...


    I suppose that what I'm saying is that we shouldn't consider empathy to be a zero sum game. I think it's possible for us to have stronger feelings for our fellow countrymen than we do now, without requiring that those feelings also be stronger than for someone in another country. However naïvely, I'd like to believe that we can band together without need for an "other". (Just to be clear, that's not meant in any way to be a dig against you.) I'm not sure that we (as a society) do feel more strongly for Libyans fleeing their homes than US families with food shortages, but I think for those who do, it's not about ranking Libyans as being more important but about their perception of the problems facing the Libyans being more dire. (At the risk of channeling Trope, it's not about Truth, but about Perception.) For me, though, it goes back to the point that you and I clearly agree on: how much impact can we have.


    Okay. don't think there's much here to argue over. But I'm avoiding RL work, so...

    - On feelings about Libya: revealed preference. Massive cuts in social programs while starting a new and utterly dubious war. Sure, there's more to that preference than caring more about Libyans than poor Americans, such as prefering actions that involve bombing baddies to giving money to suffering families, greater faith in military action than redistributive government. Still, there's a marked indifference to the latter being revealed here, isn't there? It's not like the NGO charities are making up for the absence of government action here.

    - There is a greater and greater sense, in the US and pretty much only in the US, that our relations with our societal peers is a zero-sum game. No one believes in collective action, unless its the Chamber of Commerce pooling its resources to screw the working class and take a bigger chunk of a smaller pie. No one believes there are shared benefits to industrial policy, investment, market regulation. Economic innovation now is always and everyone about finding new and ingenious ways of extracting one's rent. Everyone knows that whatever happens, someone is getting screwed - there's a finite stagnant pile of cash one better get one's share of, and anyone who thinks otherwise is a chump, anyone who says otherwise is out to screw you. You pick your team, your tribe, and ride with them.

    I don't know what you call an agglomeration of people that functions this way, but 'society' seems a misnomer.

     


    Okay. don't think there's much here to argue over. But I'm avoiding RL work, so...

    Ditto, but all I can come up with is: the actions of our government do not necessarily reflect the attitudes of our fellow citizens. That said, there is difference between lip service (which I think I'm unfortunately referring to) and actions (in which case I'd say the majority of our society care about neither and don't want our government using our resources helping the Libyans, either).


    For me case in point is the coming three free trade deals.  We now know how injurious these deals will be for American workers, and to other nations' unionized workers, and have been to environmental health and huuman rights.

    I argue with Des all the time about them, we squawk different numbers and poits back and forth to each other, neither of us budging much.  A couple times he reminded me that it used to be  'Liberal value' to want to float all boats on the planet.  My answer now is more about Americans without jobs or power to help craft good, fair trade deals, and also that the deals benefit the big mutinational companies, and not always the workers so much. 


    So what's the unemployment rate in Colombia? And just because Americans can't vote right to keep good employment growth going, and instead give away the recovery to the banks, does that mean 3rd world countries just have to wait 20 years for us to get our act together and feel super comfortable before we're ready to share with the rest of the world again?

    [excluding China, which was always about us getting cheaper toys and TVs]


    Yes.   And you may forget which people (the Indigenous ones is the hint) were chased off the land by NAFTA, resulting in genocide.

    And Colombia's unemployment rate is about 13.2%, ours is 16.5 real unemployment rate.  So yup; I think they wait until we can give more.  Or negotiate fair trade bills.

    And we aren't the only trading partners Colombia can look to, and the crap program to keep Columbian unionists from getting murdered is bogus, IMO.  The crazy way drugs fit into the scenario I can't recite, but drugs, money, corruption, and er...deflecting their friendship with Chavez all factor in. 

    signed,

    the unrepentant selfish nationalist


    Forgot to ask whether those Columbians are getting $0.75 or $0.90 an hour. Still wish they'd quit stealing our jobs - the great sucking sound keeps me awake at night.


    You also forget that the Colombians voted against the trade deal not long ago when the Bush admin. promoted it.  It was crappy then in terms of envitonmental standards.  Like Mexico, we can dump our killing pesticides on them for ag workers (flowers and palms) to slowly kill them.  We can accidentally encourage them to cut down more of the rain forest to plant palms, endangering some previously uncontacted tribes. 

    It will suck when american food-crop agricultural products flood their markets and put local farmers out of business.  Anyway: workers there don't want it, see it as a boon to american business.  Kinda funny though that this President has been reduced to going on trade missions, not diplomatic ones.


    Didn't forget - never knew.

    My point is only that America's been claiming trickle-down economics for the rest of the world for decades/centuries, but whenever there's a slight stock price downturn, we start closing the spigots and shutting the borders.

    We pretend we're helping the world with free trade, but funny, that "free" trade always comes at a price when inconvenient to us. Guess the little guys should get better lobbyists.


    Well this 3-bagger deal is being pushed hard by the Chamber of Commerce, looking to dump sell our stuff to Panama, Korea and Colombia, but Id imagine that isn't the driving force.  CoC doesn't give a rat's ass about American workers.  And those in Mexico watching al this are really cynical, given that Obama didn't change these deals a whit, except for paper proposals to save unoin workers from the government's paramilitary thigs in Colombia.

    Over 400 have have been murdered since 2002, and american unions (at least SEIU and steelworkers) are standing in solidarity with them.  No one thinks the safeguards look anything but ineffective. 

    I've read more out of the corner of my eye about the tarriff arguments, but with no understanding; not my bailiwick.  But with China you may be right, and the arguments abound on whether the US should be forcing them into stop devaluing the yen, or if China is in any way responsible for our deficit with them.  I frankly can believe the most recent person I've heard on it (gullible in my igmorance).

    Anyhoo; RL is calling again.  ;o)


    I'd say NAFTA *is* a good warning for people who expect to pass a deal and then improve it.

    Even Clinton never managed to allow Mexican trucks into the US as per the treaty, and everyone since has embargoed it. Okay for us to deliver there, but no reciprocal.


    I think you hit upon something with the shared history here. There is a shared history in this country but only among those in particular groups. Not so much between groups.

    There was more of a shared history among those of my parents generation. Those who went through the depression of the 1930s and WWII and maybe with some baby boomers who went through the 1960s and Vietnam. I do not think so much now.

    The comradeship of those in the military or those who have for a generation or more spent their lives in more or less the same area.

    But why should someone in say Iowa have more empathy for someone in Main or Indiana than they do for someone in say Ireland or France  these days ? And this goes even more so if they are from different economic or ethnic backgrounds.

    Diversity is very much a double edged sword. 


    There's that. But more importantly, imo, is the gradual loss of shared experience between the upper class and the lower class (let's forget about that anachronism called the 'middle class'). The great social mobility of the past has replaced by a very sclerotic social structure leading to a total ignorance and indifference (or perhaps suspicious fear) in the upper class about the nature and needs of the lower classes.

    When Beltway politicians spend their time shuffling between 10.000 dollar a plate fundraisers listening to lobbyists and fat-cat corporate types all day everyday, then their view of life, not to mention of 'public opinion', is bound to be skewed no matter how much they try to account for that experience bias in their decisions. It's not just that the President lives in bubble, the whole beltway - flush with defence contract cash - is a big fat bubble of prosperity, and the national top 10% - the managerial and professional classes - feel none of the consequences of the recession. It's those divides that lead to a loss of a sense of society.


    You gotta pick better examples. Cuba? It had a revolution 50 years ago and has had the same not-particularly-responsive leader (and his brother) since then. Why not North Korea? They've been around a few years longer. Very responsive government, I hear.

    You want a stable nation? Pick China. Its dynasties lasted for centuries, and the basic national unit survived a number of revolutions and barbarian invasions relatively intact for millennia. That's a country with real staying power. Why its rigid, conservative, hierarchical aristocracies were able to maintain power so long? I've no idea.

    (I think that racial and cultural homogeneity helps though.)


    You have to remember with China that they have a cultural and for lack of a better term religious history that goes back thousands of years. First with Taoism and then Confucianism and Buddhism that is very deep in their culture.

    This has a lot, if not most, to do with their staying power.


    To get a good look at the complexity is this, one can look at the historical relationship with what is now know as Vietnam and with what is now known as China. Religious and cultural bonds is only part of the story.


    I'm  by far not a Chinese historian but the history of "China" has not been one of a single "nation" nor of one single "state" smoothly moving through history.  Just like India, it was the disunity of the region that allowed the Europeans to seize what control they did.


    This is an interesting conversation on China because one of the biggest differences in the Eastern culture and Western culture is the attention that is payed to ones ancestors. The Eastern cultures, especially China and to a lessor extent Japan treat their ancestors with a grate deal of reverence. Even though Mao's policies have been generally disavowed, his picture is still prominent in China and he is still revered as the one who brought the current situation to the people.

    Where as in the west this is not the case. In the west we have a tradition of looking down on out ancestors as being backward and out of touch. Where a son or daughter of an alcoholic will think they can carry on like their parents and not have the same consequences because "Their parents did not know how to do it right. We can do it differently...exactly the same."

    So the errors of the past are quickly forgotten and ignored.

     


    There are pluses and minuses to a culture that overly reveres its ancestors and one that does not.  The other aspect of the Eastern culture is there less sense of the autonomy of the individual as opposed to the collective.  One only has to look to North Korea to see the negative side of the Eastern view.  But always have the hedonistic images of the West (did someone say Jersey Shore) to counter that.


    You can't just put that on the Asian cultures though. There are (or were) plenty to people under Soviet rule and Muslim countries that have that view of the West as well. 

    But I still think that respect for ones ancestors and what they did and taught is missing from Western culture these days. Much to our regret.


    I'm not sure what you think I was saying the East on placing on West.  I wasn't talking about one side's view of the other, although there is that.  I was talking about more the nature of the current cultures. Even the Dali Lama has spoken about the "West"'s view of the individual interferes with people's ability to meditate and let go (over simplification).


    Oh....well....that's very different. Never mind. Smile


    I have to go now, so I will this discussion on East and West with this:


    There is another aspect of the East/West differences and maybe even those between the different Western countries/cultures and that is language.

    One tends to think in their native language. That is your view of the world/people/your place in it, is reflected in your language.

    In the west or at least English speaking countries. Those of us whose language have Arabic/Latin roots, do not differentiate a person from his actions very well. Sometimes not at all.

    One who kills is a killer. One who robs is a robber. Etc.

    In the east they do not do this much. My personal experience with the Chinese that I have met is that they do not marry the government with it's leaders or policies. They keep them separate. To the Chinese it is not uncommon for them to refer to the one who robbed them simply as the one who robbed them. Not necessarily being a bad person for this.

    Most likely why we in the west have a very difficult time understanding them and their motivations.

    So they try and respect the person regardless of what they may have done.

    In Japan it's about saving face. And not having even your opponent loose face either. It is a very big deal.

    You can rest assured that even if the government of Japan takes over the TEPCO power company because of the nuclear reactor melt down, that it will be done in a way that the people involved will not loose face.

    Not because of any desire to protect the company per se. But so that those involved do not loose face because you simply do not allow that in their culture.


    India and China were completely different. China was still a powerful and unified albeit decaying empire when England conquered India, and it was never effectively colonized by Europe. In fact, none of the European powers were able to make much headway in China until the 366-year-old Qing dynasty collapsed at the beginning of the 20th century after being weakened by internal revolutions. Prior to that, foreigners were excluded from all but a few cities. Britain, for all its military might, had only squeezed off the previously insignificant backwater of Hong Kong.

    Some of the various Chinese dynasties arguably constituted different nations, but most of them lasted centuries, and the differences between the dynasties were much smaller than between, say, the Byzantines and the Turks. The continuum of political structure, culture, geography, and religion over 4000 years is unmatched in any other place in the world.

    It puts Cuba and Finland into a little perspective.


    My sense is that most states fail because of their internal populations of short people.

    Short people. No reason to live.


    Naaaah! The problem has to do with short people who pretend to be tall!


    I think the issues presented all have to do with the expectations of the great majority of a population as well as the predictive consequences of behavior.

    If a large percentage of a population can find work if an individual can provide for himself/herself and the family unit through that work, all is well as long as the expectations are reasonable.

    There is a problem with America and always has been--or at least has been over the last century or so.

    Expectations are high in this land because corporate propaganda makes those expectations high.

    20% of our population cannot find work let alone work that would provide one with the opportunity to fulfill one's expectations.

    I would guess that 40% of our population is at or near poverty levels and the next forty percent are skraping by and filled with fear that they will lose the little they have in a flash.

    Oh, what do I know?


    To accept that claim that 40% of our population is at or near poverty level, I really do need to understand what you mean by "poverty."


    That involves both the expectation issue along with the governmental standards defining poverty.

    I would certainly find that anyone who qualified for food stamps is in poverty.

    And there is a geographical facet to this discussion.

    How much is rent for a four room apartment in the Bronx or Brooklyn or Manhattan? What is rent for similar accomodations in a small town?

    Oh well, I do know that the so-called true unemployment rate is at 17% or higher if you include those who are not counted as being unemployed even though they are unemployed.

    Then there are the underemployed working for Walmart or whatever and placed on a 32 hour week schedule so that no bennies are forthcoming.

    I also know that one cannot subsist on $7/hr working a 32 hour week.

    And those making $600/week without health benefits is always on the precipice of extreme poverty.

    Oh that is enough of my drivel.


    You make an interesting point, DDay, that gets at an uncomfortable truth: In a consumer economy, the expectation is that we will always be able to accumulate more "stuff." It's a necessary fact of life for the sustainable growth of the economy as constituted at present. It follows that there is an expectation that our progeny will be more successful "consumers" than we are. They will have bigger houses, faster cars, more do-dads than we did. That's how we mark success. That's how we "grow" our economy, and it must grow or fail. There are no other options.

    First is an acknowledgment that "we was robbed." With our willing compliance, this generation was allowed to participate in a pretense of achieving far greater wealth, or "purchasing power," than we actually could claim as our own. I'm talking, of course, about the tremendous growth in consumer debt that was encouraged by the wealthy "owners" as a means of selling things on the backside without providing wages to the worker/consumers that would support such purchases on the front side.

    In addition, we had the housing bubble that greatly encouraged consumer purchasing based upon a false increase of wealth in the realm of home values. The collapse of the housing bubble and the resultant failure of our domestic economy has resulted in chickens coming home to roost for these "consumers," who will never recover to a degree that allows them to participate again in the consumer economy at sustainable levels.

    For the owners, however, it's not really a problem. They've already "sold" the goods to these failed consumers and have claimed their profit. Now all that's needed is to foreclose on the homes and otherwise force these past consumers to make good on their debts. Additionally, it leaves the opportunity available to the owners to starve out the former "consumers" by cutting all expenditures of tax funds that formerly supported them. They are no longer of any real use to the economy, so why should they participate is its rewards with things like retirement Soc Sec, Medicare, or anything else that's a drain on corporate profits? The domestic consumer in this equation might be on the ropes gasping for breath, but the owners (now globally situated) still have options available to breathe some life (read "short-term profits") into themselves before it all comes grinding to a complete halt.

    It's readily apparent that continued growth of such an economy is structurally unsustainable. As we grow into a global economy, the thought of a Chevy in the garage of every family in China and India is patently ludicrous. There simply aren't the resources available to make it happen.

    As I see it, we are actually in the death throes of the economy as played under these rules outlining consumerism as its engine. We are no longer afforded opportunity to play on the front end by being provided with sufficient wages and wealth to continue purchasing at a level that supports actual growth of the economy. And its only our residual wealth in comparison to the level of wealth achieved by foreign labor that allows us to participate (for now!) as consumers of these cheaper products made overseas.

    Interestingly, the new producers in this economy (i.e. workers in Asia and India and other regions) are not really being allowed to participate as consumers. The things they make are generally targeted for consumption in the "developed" countries, with these "global corporations" mopping up what little purchasing power we have left by presenting these items to us at reduced cost.

    There will undoubtedly be an increase in the standard of living for these producers in other countries, but it will not approach the level of creating a middle class such as we have seen here in this country and in other "developed" economies. There simply aren't sufficient resources to support such an outcome. Instead, the owners will play out the string here and abroad until the whole thing settles dead in the water with no wind at its back. At that point, it is assumed that all the profits will have been bled from the carcass and all contingencies will have been made to allow the elite plutocrats to avoid suffering the consequences of the wholly failed economic system. (Royalty and serfs in a medieval world comes to mind.)

    Just a few items for consideration, triggered by your comments. It is a discussion we must have, I think, but it is one that is almost impossible to support in our present circumstance wherein we try to simply achieve some degree of justice within the rules of the consumer economy as played.


    A fine essay indeed Sleepin!

    They are no longer of any real use to the economy, so why should they participate is its rewards with things like retirement Soc Sec, Medicare, or anything else that's a drain on corporate profits?

    This really sums up my disgust and despair over the state of the state.

    There is a new state being created with 20% of the population regarded as irrelevant and 30%-40% used as drones. The drones receive a small percentage of what they produce and their inspiration is to stay above the caste known as the unwashed.

    As I was reading your thoughts that goddamn insurance ad is running that promises a reasonable conversation regarding retirement for some member of the top 10%. Every time it comes on the box I hit the mute button.

    I mean am I really going to invest in a vineyard? Get serious!

     

     


    America will fall because it's defenders have abandoned her.

    10 For this you have every inducement of sympathy and interest. Citizens, by birth or choice, of a common country, that country has a right to concentrate your affections. The name of american, which belongs to you, in your national capacity, must always exalt the just pride of Patriotism, more than any appellation derived from local discriminations. With slight shades of difference, you have the same religion, manners, habits, and political principles. You have in a common cause fought and triumphed together; the Independence and Liberty you possess are the work of joint counsels, and joint efforts, of common dangers, sufferings, and successes.
    30 As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit. One method of preserving it is, to use it as sparingly as possible; avoiding occasions of expense by cultivating peace, but remembering also that timely disbursements to prepare for danger frequently prevent much greater disbursements to repel it; avoiding likewise the accumulation of debt, not only by shunning occasions of expense, but by vigorous exertions in time of peace to discharge the debts, which unavoidable wars may have occasioned, not ungenerously throwing upon posterity the burthen, which we ourselves ought to bear. The execution of these maxims belongs to your representatives, but it is necessary that public opinion should cooperate. To facilitate to them the performance of their duty, it is essential that you should practically bear in mind,

    that towards the payment of debts there must be Revenue; that to have Revenue there must be taxes;

    37 Europe has a set of primary interests, which to us have none, or a very remote relation. Hence she must be engaged in frequent controversies, the causes of which are essentially foreign to our concerns. Hence, therefore, it must be unwise in us to implicate ourselves, by artificial ties, in the ordinary vicissitudes of her politics, or the ordinary combinations and collisions of her friendships or enmities.

    39 Why forego the advantages of so peculiar a situation? Why quit our own to stand upon foreign ground? Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe,

     entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of European ambition, rivalship, interest, humor, or caprice?"

    http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Washington%27s_Farewell_Address#1

    NATO alliance :It would not be until the signing of the 1949 ....which formed NATO, that the United States would again enter into a permanent military alliance with any foreign nation.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Washington's_Farewell_Address

    America took a wrong path when it gave tax cuts, in a time of war

    Then discharging the debt on the backs of the servant class with benefit cuts, instead of raising taxes. Lets have..... No more foreign wars

    Bring the troops home. 

     No more taxes for wars, till the debt is paid

    What are we fighting for........  Poverty?

    AMERICA FIRST


    emphasis yours.


    Yes,

    Where would you have put the emphasis?

    Extending the Bush Tax cuts, when we had so much debt; was a stupid idea and it undermined American prosperity.


    just a joke, Resistance.  No harm intended.


    It's no joking matter, kyle flynn.  :o)   ;o)   ;o)


    It really does hurt the eyes, doesn't it? (As such, I'm interested, but only marginally so, in what drives that behavior. Obviously, it's much easier to go all black in a single font, so there must be some deliberation involved. I just can't fathom that deliberation leading to, oh, you know what would be a good idea? Unless, of course, you're dealing with MegaShark.)


    Yes, Atheist; it hurts my eyes, but so do those boxes, as I'm getting famous objecting to.  ;o)

    I confess I even clicked on your MegaShark thinking it was a hyperlink; oy. I usually will use the big ones and colors for humorous intent, or blue for a quote to avoid the boxes. 

    I admit to not being very interested because I assume I know, which of course is silly.  But attention first, love of the American Flag is second.   ;o) 



    How else can I have your attention?

    Maybe it's purely by own problem, but the problem is that when you start doing the weird font size and color thing, especially when it's mixed and matched, you don't get my attention, you lose it. I find it very distracting, and whatever good points you might make get put into a MySpace frame of mind, which makes me feel like I'm reading something written by a high-schooler. Granted, it's illogical for me to have that reaction, but it's the reaction I have nonetheless. Just as with Quinn and the mighty shark, I don't take things seriously when they're put that way, and I hate for you to be sold short just because of a choice of font. Please understand that this is meant sincerely and not as a personal insult.


    I dont take it seriously.

    I didn't do it for you.

    I did it for  Eye catching simplicity.

    With all the multitude of black and white words of opinions expressed,

    Using the tools available to be heard amongst all the other opinions.  

    Maybe my opinion in Red, will stand out?

    Simple.....  No highfalutin words

    I like red for emphasis, you dont.

    Support our values.......Pay our debts.

    Did the red catch your eye?


    See, a single instance of it works. It was just that the original piece up thread looked more like a ransom note with bits and pieces cut from different sources.

     

    Pay me $1,000

    I thought it was the solution to a Concentration puzzle.


    See, a single instance of it works. It was just that the original piece up thread looked more like a ransom note with bits and pieces cut from different sources . ?

    Just kidding VA Wink


    Tongue out


    If any of you read Asimov's Foundation series, one of his premises was that a psychohistorian, Hari Seldon, could calculate and predict the future political moves of several interplanetary populations centuries into the future. Seldon did pretty well, but he couldn't predict that a powerful mutant would change the rules.

    I sort of feel that way about economists and others trying to make the world fit into waves, cycles or other models. They can be right about a lot of things, but unexpected developments can vastly change things.

    As far as societies that endure, I see Cuba and North Korea having autocratic governments and food supply problems, but Cuba survived fairly well while North Korea seems to be suffering much more.

    Thanks for furthering the discussion.


    I think the biggest difference between countries that are stable and those that are not are that the latter exist while the former do not, at least not in the long term. It seems that the United States is being excluded from the list of stable countries (and I can think of a few reasons it should), while other (younger) countries not really any better off are not excluded.

    We're all going to [the void] in a handbasket.


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