cmaukonen's picture

    Consensus

    con·sen·sus [kuhn-sen-suhs]
    –noun, plural -sus·es.
    1. majority of opinion: The consensus of the group was that they should meet twice a month.

    2. general agreement or concord; harmony.

    I like watching James Burke's series on the history of technology and it's impact on society. Every time I watch one of the episodes I get something I missed before.  For a very long time people only really knew what was going on their particular families and villages and what the people thought there. And what they thought was for the most part what the emperors and leaders told them to think.  To do otherwise or at least to let anyone else know you thought differently was at the very least quite risky.  This was true  pretty much through out the entire world.  Until the invention of the printing press, communication was slow and tedious with documents  hand written and most news by word of mouth which made it hardly news.  And then only the biggest and most important events were conveyed.  Like who the King was going to invade or have put to death or some such.

    Movable type helped this but still communication was slow but now could be done more or less on the spot. At least in the bigger burgs.  But you still did not find out much about what was going on in the next village unless you went there and talked to the people which few did except for trading purposes. Especially if the next village was some ways away.  Still most folks held beliefs along the lines of what the King or Queen or Pope or Priest told them too. Not to do so could end ones existence rather harshly.  

    As the ability of people to communicate better among themselves through printed matter and better communication and transportation this eventually changed with the Monarchs being removed from power and religious figures diminished in power and more representative governments put in place.  But this all took time.   Freedom of thought and expression became more and more acceptable. Well to an extent. It took a while for the beliefs of a flat world that everything revolved around to change and have the concept of the world being round and it revolving around the sun to be generally accepted.  Still if one held a contrary view of things to that of the majority, one was considered either deranged or a heretic or both. 

    Our representative Democracy was considered a very radical idea at the time. Having people elect a person to represent their concerns, beliefs and ideas and meet to decide how to manage the country on their behalf was totally new. The rest of the world at that time was still doing and thinking what the Monarchs and Popes and Priests told them to do and think.  In fact even here this was considered radical by many who were of the opinion that only the elite land owners should have this option. 

    All very nice and idealistic.  But even the representatives would be influenced by their own beliefs and agendas which may or may not be inline with the majority back home.  This is only human nature.  Since communication  back and forth was slow and unreliable at best, one could never really know how this was going to turn out. 

    Communication improved slowly at first with the telegraph and then telephone and finally radio and television.  But even with all of this and the speed improvements they each contributed one thing that really did not change much for a long time was what was reported.  It was a lot easier and quicker to find out nearly everything that was going on locally and even regionally. The new media did a fairly good job of that if you were in the bigger metropolitan areas.  But unless the story or news item was considered big enough to warrant national attention, you did not hear about it.  If you lived in Pittsburgh or Ceder Rapids you heard about what was going on there, how people there felt about it and what (if anything) should be done. You only heard about what was going on else where if the event was big enough and rarely what the citizens of the area thought about it. It was very easy to ignore what was going on and what people thought in Utah or Indiana or South Dakota because nobody told you about it.  If you did not have the issue in you own local, you generally were not aware it was an issue. 

    But as our communication technology improved our ability to find out what was and is going on in other places in the world has improved as well.   We have had opinion polls but as anyone could tell you they are not all that accurate. You need a very large sample and the polls can be easily biased by the type of questions they ask.  With the explosion of technology since the 1980s we now have the ability to know what is going on in just about any place in the world and nearly every area of this country. Something that we never had before. 

    As a country we are now finding out what people think and feel in all parts. We cannot get way from it. If somebody is molested in Gary Indiana, chances are very good this information is posted somewhere on the internet.  This is new and it's not comfortable lore. What's the matter with Kansas ? Nothing. Kansas is the way Kansas has always been. We are just more aware of it now than ever before.

    So why did I pick the topic of consensus for this blog ? Because it's the one thing we in this country never really had. It was simply not possible to have a majority opinion in this country because until recently it was not possible to really know what the opinion of anyone outside our own community was. Nobody really told us and it would have been very difficult, if not impossible to find out what it was. The country was just too big.

    In a sense our current technology has become our Babble Fish. It has broken down the last barriers of communication with the expected results. We are finding out where we agree and most importantly where we disagree as a nation for the first time. How this will eventually end up though, is anybodies guess.

    Comments

    Interesting piece. I've been thinking about a related idea for a possible book. The industrialized world is exchanging the old information oligarchy where information is disseminated by a small set of elite sources--television networks, newspapers, culture critics, encyclopedias, etc.--for something more democratic in which information is shared through social networks, blogs, wikis, user reviews, etc.

    But democracy implies a rule-governed regime with regular elections. Surveys and elections are democratic. The new information order is full of mass hysteria and demagoguery. Established scientists and economists are ignored; junk science and pseudo-economics flood through our information channels. Political celebrities like Sarah Palin, who holds no office and works for no media outfit, can easily upstage Republican party officials with a 30-character tweet, and her political endorsements can unseat party favorites. The Greeks would call it ochlocracy, mob rule.


    PS C, your font is still a little off. Would you please use Arial in future? Thanks.


    I think it'd be great if you took a shot at a book on this G, and here's my two bits:

    1. While "democracy" may imply rules and elections, the particular form we modern political junkies focus in on - representative democracy with its regular Federal/State/Municipal elections - is just one form. Some argue that deeper, more direct or participatory democracy was perhaps too difficult - given then-existing technology etc. - for earlier eras to harness, but that its time may be coming. Others would argue - such as myself - that democracy has to do with people making decisions together, and that we have created dozens and dozens of forms through which to do that, within workplaces, schools, churches, families, neighbourhoods, etc.

    So what we'd need to be looking at is how this wider "democracy" changes, in these various spheres of life, once the informational walls and hierarchies get blown out, and the new wires and networks put in place. We should expect to see the set of decisions we make change, the locus of decision-making change, etc. Not just changes to the old, high profile forms like parties and fund-raising.

    2. You'll have a hard time convincing me that the new information order is MORE full of mass hysteria and demagoguery. For starters, I would note that every single step forward on democratizing information and communication was consicered to have reduced the quality of the information available, as well as boosted the emotional temperature. The printing press, the TV, mass education, Parliament, newspapers - all of these things were condemned by the old guard. And it was always easy to trot out examples. What they usually failed to consider was that the expansion of democratic input also created enormous leaps forward in knowledge, as well as in the creation of new "governors" on the system. 

    For example. You consider that established economists are being ignored, and pseudo-economics is flooding the airwaves. I would suggest that mainstream economics has just been found to be absolute bollocks, and that that was its real - albeit not widely-recognized - condition pre-Internet. And in fact, that view is pretty much the one held by people like Krugman, whose every second column these days is an expression of horror at just how little the profession knew, and how many of the paid pros believed this swill. 

    As for junk science.... really? Do we think real science is working worse these days, or just that junk science gets spread around more widely? I'm not sure even that's the case. But if so, it's certainly the case that people are hearing of lots and lots and LOTS of good science, now that there's a million good science blogs and sites, and now that people are researching millions of drugs and species and events on Wiki and the Google and such. 

    As for Palin, sure, she's a danger - and can move rapidly. But, Douglas MacArthur, Joe McCarthy, Richard Nixon, Spiro Agnew, Ronald Reagan, W Bush and many many more have down that pike, using the newspapers or TV or movies to bypass the existing party apparatus.

    Or are you getting down on the masses these days, and looking to create a little distance? ;-)


    Interesting stuff. On the dissemination-of-science issue, I find this cartoon captures it nicely...

    http://www.fakesteve.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/life-before-google.jpg


    Actually for me none of the above. All that you say has existed probably for a lot longer than most know or choose to acknowledge. The only difference, to me at least, is that now they all get their 15 minutes of fame or more which was very difficult at best before the current technology.

    There have been plenty of Palins and Bachmanns and Becks and what not. Just that in the past they would not have had much if any podium.

    Thirty years ago I would not have even known of your existence let alone your philosophy.


    Whew; you wouldda dodged that bullet, eh?


    Dude. "Just that in the past they would not have had much if any podium."

    What? Radio? TV? Newspapers? Plus all those traditional methods of mobilizing people to be spoken at, like at church or at work or at clubs etc? Like yours and Dick's Father Coughlin, we've had fascist radio preachers with huge followings for a long time. I think the podiums have always been there. Or else... how did fascism and communism and all the 20th Century manias work?


    By the time the 1940s came around radio had become heavily regulated and censored. Censored by the station owners and the networks so the content would not upset the advertisers and Mr. & Mrs. Middle America.

    And in the 1950s through the 1960s TV even more so. News papers as well. If it did not pass the Leave it to Beaver smell test, it did not get on. And during those times advertisers payed attention to content.

    The closest I remember to what you call the fascist preachers were Rex Humbard, Oral Roberts and Bishop Fulton J. Sheen.  The ones you are referring to did not crop up until the mid 1970s.


    Thanks, q. Let's spin out point 2. I would like to be able to offer an upbeat analysis, but what I'm seeing makes me pessimistic, so I'll be pleased if you can persuade me that great things await.

    You don't need to convince me that the oligarchs are flawed. It's clear enough that pulitzer prizes and academic chairs do not endow people with omniscience and that the possibility of challenges from outside elite circles is positive development.

    What I'm pessimistic about is the alternative. In general, publications that focus as one-offs cater to sensationalist information.That's why supermarket tabloids have such lurid covers. By contrast, the NYT has a subscription model that incentivizes its editors to protect its more authoritative brand.

    Notwithstanding nytimes.com current experiment with subscriptions, new media is almost exclusively a one-off model. Most people who visit dag came here because of one article. The same is probably true of TPM, HuffPo, etc. I've seen which articles take off at dag and also at CNN. They tend to be strong partisan takes on big-name public figures like Beck and Palin. We ridicule HuffPo's celebrity pieces, but that's the stuff that gets googled and passed around the social networks. So basically, new media has a powerful incentive to dumb down content.

    Second, most people are poorly equipped to distinguish good science from bad science, and almost everyone tends to gravitate towards ideas that fit their preconceived ideas. You may know enough to tell when an economist is full of shit, but Joe Tea Partier does not, and he's very likely to embrace whichever economist says that government too big. In an age when the oligarchs are discredited, who is there to convince him otherwise?

    Third, the folks with the real power in the new information era are those with largest audiences. See this video of a laughing baby? It's got almost 15 million views. You know why? Because Alyssa Milano thought it was cute and tweeted it to her 1.5 million Twitter followers. Then it went viral, and the baby even ended up on the Today Show. OK, that's harmless enough, but what about Jenny McCarthy's anti-vaccine campaign? Or Sarah Palin, who almost single-handedly derailed the health care bill with a single Facebook post about "death panels."

    So my question is, given these pernicious forces, how will the good information to bubble up to the top and force out the bad?

    PS Cmauk, sorry about the thread-hijacking. I hope that this discussion is interesting and relevant enough to your point to justify it's presence.


    Actually it's pretty much on point. I am glad it's something that people are willing to talk about. Personally I find the history of technology and it's impact on society fascinating. Filled with all kinds of interesting people, twists and turns.

    What we are seeing now with the current technology is not all that unusual. The beginning of radio and wireless were nearly as anarchistic with anyone who could put a station on the air doing so.

    Beck reminds me so of the guy with the goat gland cure that people flocked to in droves. Claimed it would cure anything. He had his own radio station for years.


    At bottom.


    What you say is true but only because now it can be.

    Case in point. There was in the 1930s a loud mouth Catholic Priest.  Father Coughlin.  He had a radio program for a number of years where he gave his views on the government and politics and nearly everything else.

    Was he any less of a loud mouth before he got the radio program ? Before radio even ? I suspect not. I suspect he was always a loud mouth. The only difference was he got a radio program because there was radio.

    For lack of a better term, the filter is now gone. I seem to remember this being covered on a Bill Moyers program a while back. Everyone now has there own private little radio station or even TV station, if you take youtube etc. into account.

    It's the same country but now everyone has pretty much an equal say. Not just what the media was willing to report.

    One could say it's democracy in the raw.


    Yeah, that's what I'm worried about, a Father Coughlin of the internet. Or 100 of them.


    Isn't governing in the absence of consensus what politics was once all about?  I thought that the whole point of requiring supermajorities to make major changes was a recognition of general non-consensus on many issues.  

    There are very vocal minorities across the entire political spectrum who want to impose their own policies without having to bother winning hearts and minds to their cause.  Doing that with the bare miniumum of votes practically guarantees blowback.  

     


    All I can say is...yep.


    The Heisenberg uncertainty principle states the more precisely one property is measured, the less precisely the other can be measured.

    Damn quantam mechanix is so frickin' unpredictable!


    Genghis, a couple of thoughts:

    1. When most of us used to think of a "tsunami," we thought of the height of the wave. When in reality, the tsunami's impacts come about because of its length, breadth, depth. i.e. Not the peak of the wave, but the extended, rising tide changes the landscape. 

    Same here. We all focus - when asked about the internet - on the peaks, the amazing stories. When in reality, I think it's the massive, sustained, ongoing rise in the water level that will forever change our world. (Though yes, I get depressed when I see that Lady Gaga's video has 364,000,000 views.)

    But what I've found in my family and friends, is that there are thousands of different sites that are fully engaging people, without the hype, without the great political or cultural wars. And those sites are changing how they see the world, and how they live. Whereas Gaga... I think she's had less impact, even though they've racked up some views.

    e.g. I visit a hockey site for the Leafs. Thousands of other people do as well, daily. The site does far more detailed original research than many political sites, engages regularly with the mainstream media, has an exceptionally tight policy around sexist, anti-gay and assholish behaviour, and has created a dozen sports-related memes. If you watched it through a political lens, you'd see that slowly but surely, it is educating male hockey fans away from casual abuse, is working to reduce the violence in the game, it moves people away from "tv watching" responses and toward more sophisticated statistical analysis, etc. 

    And now, it is increasingly recognized by the team's owners, as well as the MSM, as being a broad, but also deep, pool of Leaf fan feedback and knowledge - and they directly collar reporters for their bad behaviour now.

    That's the obvious politics. 

    More than this however, it is engaging person after person to come forward, write, research, think, create jokes, join in, as well as organizing joint events, games, etc. There is almost no way for me to compare this with the pre-internet world, where 2 TV channels, 3 newspaper sports writers, and a couple of magazines shaped how we saw the entire sport.

    I see the same for friends/family in relation to gardening sites, family/ancestry research, DIY, steampunk, music, wine, colour, vintage farm equipment, faith, home schooling, song-writing. 

    And almost none of it is hype-driven/based. Odd to me, because - judging from the big-name sites - I would have expected it to be all-maniacal screaming, all-the-time. Instead, it's civil, calm, damn near bland at times, and people are eating it up. 

    Sometimes, just to reassure myself that there are sane people out there (usually after a visit to Dag), I just hit StumbleUpon. I find it an incredible way to rebuild my faith in human creativity, fun, imagination. Or, I'll just randomly wander through Posterous or some other set of blogs. At times, it almost makes me believe that most of the world is just like my neighbours.... "Canadian."

    The difficulty is when we head to the big-shot sites. And when - here in this early age of the Internet - we attempt to figure out some great screaming method or amazing new font or great new ad campaign that will enable us to make money at this. Because when you view those sites, and try to figure out how to replicate their success,you get depressed.

    So, my first point is just to make sure you don't miss the rising tide, because the cameras are trained on the whitecaps. And down there, in the deeper daily waters, there's more sanity, more calm, than the media would ever imagine. In fact, it's so "boring" that they can't cover it. That is... not as sensationalist and dumbed down.... People are increasingly well-equipped, knowledgeable in a million areas, and fast-responding... And more power on some of these deep "issue" sites than in, for example, newspapers - and certainly more than twitter.

    A final example. Facebook. It's probably the biggest #1 deal out there for people on the Internet. And you know what? It's nightmarishly, horrendously, calm. The media can only cover it when it leads to pedophilia or mobbing or somesuch. But for me and mine? It's a daily conversation, with 1001 new things coming on slow-drip, that changes us.

    2. History. A great story, here, that was in the Globe and Mail, about the birth of Hansard. And how London's Mayor Brass Crosby (he of 'bold as brass" fame) was thrown into the Tower of London when "he refused to pass sentence on John Miller, the printer of the London Evening Post, who had enraged Parliament by publishing leaked reports of its debates, which were considered privileged and not for public consumption. Many London newspapers were committing this offence at the time, sometimes thinly disguising the transcripts by using false names for MPs and as meetings of the “Robin Hood Society” or the “Senate of Magna Lilliputia.”" Anyway, eventualy, these came to be called Hansard, after one of the publishers.

    http://dougsaunders.net/page/9/

    Again and again, the process of that time saw an expansion in public access to information, of public discussion, of public creation and reproduction of their own views, and public entry into worlds once closed to them. 

    My old prof Jock Gunn used to research 17th and 18th century political pamphlets. Said that though all we know now are the great names - Hume and Burke and Hobbes and that lot - that many of them were nothing in their day. And that even if we added in formal political history, with laws and prime ministers and such, we were only scrapping the surface. 

    But that beneath it, the world was churning with thousands upon thousands of cheaply printed flyers and handbills and dreadfuls and broadsheets, full of millions of political ideas and commentaries and rumours and proposals and slanders. And that the rise and fall of these sheets and their ideas and their heroes and villains in many cases MADE the political events of the day, the ones later rationalized and cleaned up in the biographies and histories, and usually tarted up and given intellectual cover.

    Some of Gunn's stuff is here, including discussion of how the 4th Estate became legitimized, the name beginning as a joke... as well as some on how the idea of a "loyal opposition" came to be accepted.

    http://books.google.ca/books?id=yYO8-OUGyJ0C&printsec=frontcover&dq=Beyo...

    So, my second point is that once again, we need to pay attention to the rising tide, even though the historians and the great and the good were focussed on the whitecaps. Because while these forces were utterly condemned by the powerful at the time, as being sensationalistic, dumbed down, ignorant and likely to lead to demagogues... they helped create Hansard, the press as we know it, Parliamentary forms of government, and so on.

    3. In each case, these people churning up from below - and their ideas - were thought to trash. Scum. Whether they were pushing forward a transition to the written word... use of the printing press... expansion of the vote... rights of the press... universal public education... etc. And always those same fears - that it would trend toward the sensationalist and be dumbed down. That people were not equipped. And that power would flow to those with the largest audiences (who are evil or idiotic.)

    And in ways, I agree with each point. 

    For me, the debate should be retargeted toward working out how people are - practically - overcoming those fears and ensuring that these innovations work to.... equip people, raise not lower debates, create constructive new institutions, etc. I see it happening, and feel it happening, but I haven't yet read a good piece on how that's happening.


    below


    Interesting reading as usual, Q. Thanks. Don't know if you've seen this perspective on Facebook which I found enlightening.


    Will read, but just in case you haven't seen Wondermark's cartoons, they're a joy. Check em out.


    See? Yet one more reason to hate on Socrates...

    ;0)


    Good piece - including the original article. Ta.


    Thank you, quinn, for a great response. I haven't replied until now because I've been chewing on it. Not that I have a lot to show for the mastication efforts.

    First, other than the gnashing of teeth among news organizations with declining profits and the usual dross about new technology destroying teenagers' brains, I haven't seen many warnings about widespread negative impact from social networks. Most of the detractors so far seem to just dismiss them, and of course, there are plenty of rah-rah technologists on the other side talking them up.

    Similarly, while past technological breakthroughs from the printing press to the telephone have also had their detractors, it's not clear how pervasive the alarm was, though I grant you that the advent of democracy was a bumpy road.

    That said, I hear you. My concerns could well be the modern equivalent of some fusty British lord bemoaning government by the rabble--which would be particularly ironic since I launched a career from new media.

    So let's spin out the positive. I do think that people are getting a lot more information about topics that interest them then they used. Speaking personally, much of my political education came directly and indirectly through the blogosphere--from bloggers' links and commentary as well as from old media research inspired by bloggers' links and commentary.

    The positive value of the changing flows of information rests on: a) the overall quality of the information, and b) the opportunity cost of quality information that they might have otherwise received.

    On a) you're right that looking at Lady Gaga's hit numbers may miss the long tail of quality info that people are consuming in localized niches. I'm not sure how to measure that though.

    On b), I don't think that you've addressed my concern that old media news sources will be forced to go gaga for Gaga in order to compete in the new order. It's fun to smack around the Gray Lady, but I think it will be a national loss if she morphs into Arianna Huffington.

    But there's a bigger issue that I'm struggling to wrap my imagination around, and that is what will the new information order really look like. I feel like I'm staring at a newly invented printing press, and I can see that it's got a bright future ahead of it in the Bible-business, but I have little sense of the literature and philosophy it will enable, the scientific advances it will facilitate, or the revolutions it will provoke. Thoughts?


    Short answer: Where there are humans you will find flies and Buddhas.

    Long answer: When wireless first came out it was pure bedlam but it eventually led to much safer ocean travel, air travel and well travel of any kind. As well as educational and artistic programming that could and did reach clear around the world. But with a lot of glunk glunks and glick glicks along the way.


    Just one thought in all of this has to do with the quality of analysis and summary provided.  What I mean is that if what I want to know is what is happening in Libya, there is definitely some value that can be had with just someone pointing their camera phone at the scene happening in front of them and posting it.  In some very significant ways, this new flood of information coming from the "everyone is a news correspondent" has improved our understanding of current events.  But there is also something that comes from a true seasoned foreign news correspondent who is on the ground gathering information from a variety of sources and putting that information into a larger context.  One of the key issues here is that person needs to get paid by someone.  That is where institutions like the Grey Lady come in.  That have the available resources to put someone on the ground who knows what he or she is doing.  But in order to generate those resources, the institution has to create a certain level of "readership" -- and the gaga effect then goes into play.  


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