The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
    Michael Maiello's picture

    Is the Fed Messing Up?

    I really don't know!

    The good thing about the Fed is that if it is messing up, it can always reverse course.  Interest rates remain low, but the central bank now has a lot of room to cut or even go back to QE, if the economy seems too tempered.

    My gut is that the Fed is probably right that now is an okay time to raise rates modestly. Inflation remains low, but that's generally something the central bank wants to get ahead of.  In any event, it's pretty easy for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to simply stop raising rates so long as inflation isn't forcing his hand. Though that could actually spook the market by making stock investors think that the Fed thinks the economy is weaker than it is. Or not.  It's fun how any action by the Fed and by stock prices, can be framed in an explanatory way.

    It's hard to isolate the Fed as the problem given all the goofiness emanating from the White House. No knock on Powell here but one of the goofiest moves was to have replaced Janet Yellen in the first place.  But, hey, what do I know?




    you know more than most of us here so I welcome your honest thoughts! smiley

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