Deadman's picture

    What goes up, must come down ....

    I believe in balance. In yin and yang. I believe in cycles. In symmetry. I believe big wild parties end with big, nasty hangovers. I believe that what goes up, must come down.

    Unfortunately, our government does not agree.


    To Bail or not to Bail

    To bail or not to bail, that is the question,
    whether tis nobler for Detroit to suffer
    The slings and arrows of outrageously high unemployment
    Or to guarantee huge loans against a sea of debt,
    And by paying them off end them?

    Michael Wolraich's picture

    Japan: Recessive Again

    Japan's economy is now officially in recession, according to those in charge of labeling such things, which means that they beat us again. While most believe that the U.S. has already entered a recession, it's not official until we have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so we're just going to have to wait until January.

    Mortimus's picture

    Liveblogging A Youtube Video (TM)

    Who'dathunk we'd end up in this mess when folks like Peter here were being celebrated two years ago?

    Warning: Don't watch on the computer you'd hate to see a fist put through

    Deadman's picture

    Dealing out a bunch of hooey and driving me mad ...

    It's bad enough the government will soon be doling out billions and billions of taxpayer dollars to bail out the bloated, mismanaged U.S. auto industry.

    But please, please, do not give any of that money to the nation's car dealers.

    Deadman's picture

    Obama will mean the end of capitalism!!!! (Whoops, too late ...)

    The day after Obama won the election, a Republican friend of mine on Facebook joined a group that planned on getting together on Inauguration Day to mourn 'The End of Capitalism as We Know It'*.

    Members of the group were waxing bitter in the message board, complaining about how Obama was a socialist who was going to destroy the U.S. economy.

    I had to laugh ... and cry.

    Deadman's picture

    The future as I see it, through someone else's eyes ...

    Today I read an article on the Web that I wanted to share because it jibes pretty much perfectly with my vision of the near future for this country, particularly in relation to its economic, social and political status. It's not a pretty picture. But it's what I see ahead.

    Deadman's picture


    I've had it.

    This country has been on engorging on a cheap credit binge for the last decade, stuffing itself on the sugar highs and empty calories provided by ultra-low interest rates and fancy derivatives and zero-down mortgages. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and everyone is looking for a way to get their butt saved.

    Deadman's picture

    How The American Dream helped create this American nightmare ....

    You hear a lot of conservatives nowadays wanting to place blame for the country's current economic crisis on the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, which encouraged commercial banks to lend money to borrowers in low-income areas.

    The implication is that the CRA, enacted and significantly expanded under two different Democratic administrations, led to the creation and proliferation of the risky subprime mortgages that have brought the U.S. banking system to the brink of collapse.

    Deadman's picture

    Here's the rally ... Now what??

    OK, so I was a day or two early with my short-term bottom and violent rally call, but it's party time on Wall Street today with the markets almost up double digit percentages. (Uh, now more than double digits ...)

    Deadman's picture

    We need more panic, not less ...

    Damn, I thought I was going out on a limb when I called for a violent (though short-lived) rally to the upside. But if the press and the pundits who speak their mind in the press are any indication, that's a very crowded limb.

    I've been watching CNBC A LOT for the past few days, and it seems like nearly everyone is looking at this crash as a great buying opportunity, telling people not to panic, saying a bottom is at hand and a violent rally is on its way.

    Deadman's picture

    Short post on short selling and a short-term bottom ...

    I think we're about to get a much-needed reminder that stock markets don't always go down.

    Could happen today, could happen tomorrow, and it may or may not happen after one last big selloff, but we're going to get a relief rally very soon. I don't expect it to last long, but I do expect it to be rather violent and dramatic. Maybe we get back close to 11,000 on the Dow.

    Deadman's picture

    Perspective on a Gray Monday ...

    So, the market is down 555 points, almost 5 percent. Yet so far this is no October Black Monday, like when the market dropped 13 percent on October 28th, 1929 or when it dropped 22% on October 19, 1987. (Note: Things are moving fast, market down another 100 points since I started writing).

    This is, in many ways, even worse - just another Gray Monday, where we get the continued, orderly drip-drip-drip of a market with no confidence, and no idea of where we are headed.

    Deadman's picture

    You're kidding, right? Right?!?

    So yesterday I wrote about how the Senate was making the bailout plan bigger but not better in order to get reluctant legislators aboard.

    Oh man, you have no idea. It makes me want to cry.

    According to the WSJ, A bill that was originally 3 pages is now more than 400 pages. Among the useless 'sweeteners' tacked onto the plan:

    Deadman's picture

    A better bailout ... or just a bigger, badder one??

    So now the Senate is going to try its hand at passing a bailout plan.

    Deadman's picture

    Holy *%$# ... Bailout defeated, market collapses

    OK, I was wrong. Really wrong. I was sure politicians would approve this bailout bill, no matter how publicly unpopular it was. The short-term risks of not doing something seemed too enormous - a complete freeze of the credit markets and the subsequent collapse of the economic system that relies so heavily on that free flow of credit.

    Deadman's picture

    One $700B bailout coming up ...

    OK, the market's up big. The bailout plan is about to be unveiled. What does it all mean? Here are my thoughts.


    Deadman's picture

    Public skeptical of bailout? But of course ...

    We've been told for so long that everything is OK with the economy. Nothing to see here, they've said. McCain calls the economy fundamentally strong; his economic adviser calls the American people a bunch of whiners; Greenspan says we are nearing the bottom of the housing meltdown; Barney Frank dismisses the problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as overstated.

    Deadman's picture

    All clear? Hardly

    The SEC has banned short-selling on financial stocks. The Treasury has guaranteed money market funds and is cooking up plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to buy distressed assets and save troubled banks. The market has rebounded huge, taking back all of this month's losses.

    So are we all clear??


    Deadman's picture

    A lot of Boo ... not so much Yah!

    Whoo-boy. Another fun day on Wall Street. I just got done watching another episode of Jim Cramer's Mad Money and I gotta vent a little bit here.

    I like Cramer. A lot of people think he's a buffoon, but I think he's incredibly smart, and he entertains and informs like few others in the business. And there is no denying his stellar record as a hedge fund manager in his former career (though I would venture that a lot of the practices he now rails against as a voice for the common man- like naked short selling - helped contribute to a lot of that performance).



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