Donal's picture

    High Speed Rail is taking forever

    The Infrastructurist has a good summation of the For and Against of high-speed rail. They also have a slough of links throughout the article that I haven't reproduced here.

    In Case You’re Just Joining Us: The High-Speed Rail Debate

    Against HSR
    Opponents of high-speed rail usually begin — and often end — by asking about the money. Citing concerns over financing, several Republican candidates for governor have threatened to halt rail projects. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie actually did cancel the ARC transit tunnel (for a few hours, anyway). Wisconsin candidate Scott Walker (he of NoTrain.com) recently called high-speed rail “yet another example of President Obama’s failed stimulus policies that are bankrupting our nation.” A recent review of California’s high-speed rail concluded that the line can’t support its own costs: ridership forecasts are too high, and operating expenses too low. Charles Lane cites “Amtrak’s consistent money-losing” in arguing that cars, buses, and planes carry travelers more efficiently, and at lower cost. Along those lines, Randal O’Toole says interstates provide 4,000 miles of travel per American, whereas high-speed rail would give 300 “at best.” One of several reasons why high-speed rail “will likely fail on its own lack of merits,” argues Sam Staley of the Reason Foundation, is that America is simply too vast — filled with “sparsely populated areas” unsuited for bullet trains.

    For HSR
    Those in favor of high-speed rail see the light at the end of the tunnel. As Ezra Klein points out, now is a prime time to invest in infrastructure — with cheap construction costs and borrowing that’s “never been lower.” True, trains don’t always pay for themselves, concedes Paul Krugman, but cars also drive on roads maintained by tax dollars. A permanent trust or bank for rail money might correct this long-standing funding imbalance, says Andy Kunz, head of the U.S. High Speed Rail Association. Anyway, economics don’t tell the whole story. High-speed rail can “ease the pressure” on roads and airways, says a new bipartisan report. A balanced transportation system protects the environment and ensures “that future generations have the ability to move freely,” writes AltTransport. It also reduces dependency on foreign oil, reminds Congressman Earl Blumenauer of Oregon. Besides, if Amtrak’s latest figures reflect true behavioral change — this year it set records for riders and revenue — then rail’s time may finally have arrived. As for traversing the vast United States, Robert Yaro contends that “70 percent of Americans” live in a dense megaregion “perfectly suited” to bullet trains.

    Middle of the Tracks
    Still others stray a bit from the master storyline of good versus evil. Economist Jan Brueckner recognizes that much is appealing about high-speed rail but also knows that transportation “habits are hard to change.” Keith Poole of University of Georgia believes a better solution is “improving existing rail lines in cooperation with the freight railroads.” Robert Puentes of the Brookings Institute says that we should build high-speed rail in some cases, but a better general question is “how we are going to make the transition to a low-carbon economy and what type of infrastructure investments help get us there?” High-speed rail is all well and good, says Peter Pantuso, head of the American Bus Association, but boosting the “intercity bus industry … makes economic, environmental and policy sense” too.


    My take is that we don't even seem to have the political will to maintain our low-speed rail tracks, our highways and our sewers, so how can we expect to fund, build and maintain high-speed bullet trains across multiple administrations?

    Have you noticed that the cost of a barrel of oil has risen from bouncing around the high $70s to the low $80s? I'm not predicting that is a trend, but uncertainty makes it tough to rely on traffic as usual. Tom Whipple keeps us up-to-date on the possibilities.

    As the projected demand for oil pushes to ever higher levels in the coming months, the issue of another economy-killing price spike arises. Washington tries to look at the bright side with EIA administrator Richard Newell telling a press conference that OPEC production will “increase over the next year or two” which “should keep prices from rising dramatically. Some OPEC ministers however are already talking of $90 to $100 oil which is not that far away. OPEC has decided to hold its production steady while urging members to adhere to quotas already in place.

    While the Saudis and their Gulf brethren say they have spare capacity, many OPEC members are pumping close to flat out. So long as China keeps booming, the coming year may be the test of just how far up global production can go.

    The general strike in France has left 10 of the country’s 12 refineries without workers. If the strike is not settled soon, fuel shortages should start next week.

    At this point, I'd be happy to see more freight lines to replace the long haul trucks that rely on cheap diesel fuel, and more regular speed intercity rail to replace the intercity buses that also rely on cheap diesel fuel. But make no mistake - in the not-too-distant future, we will wish we had built more rail. And if the cost of jet fuel becomes prohibitive again, we will wish we had built high-speed rail.

    But long range planning is not the strength of a plutocracy masquerading as a republic.

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    Comments

    Seems to me, as pilot projects, you pick the lowest-hanging fruit first: New York-Washington, Montreal-Toronto, San Francisco-Los Angeles. It's hard to imagine any of those pairings not being well-traveled, cost-effective, even profitable. Ideally, each city has a terminal at a major airport and downtown. If the business plans are solid enough, government's role might be merely to clear the track for private capital. But everything depends on economic recovery. You need riders willing to pay a premium to shave a few hours off their trips. I'd do it just for the fun.


    While the Eastern megalopolis corridor is certainly the most-traveled, I would imagine it is also the most difficult and expensive place to build a relatively straight track. The rights-of-way there are fairly old, surrounded by other properties and include many turns that limit the high speed trains. Those rights of way are also the path of internet backbones, BTW.

    There is already a fast train from DC to Boston, the 150 mph Acela Express, which replaced the 120 mph Metroliner, but the average speed is only 75 mph.

    Not sure if the other corridors have those limitations.


    I should have mentioned the Acela, since it was designed and built by Montreal-based Bombardier. But as you note, it's a potentially high-speed train that runs slowly because it lacks a purpose-built track.


    There are a number of routes that make sense.  East Coast corridor stuff, certainly, once the right-of-way issues are resolved.  Add in Chicago-New York, Chicago-Minneapolis, Chicago-St. Louis, LA-San Francisco, Miami-Atlanta-DC, Seattle-Portland-San Francisco.  I'd add Chicago-Detroit if there was still any reason to go to Detroit.

    New York-LA?  Maybe not, unless there's some sort of premium experience involved and it's priced commensurately. 

    Those are just off the top of my head, and if it means genuine high-speed rail (200+ MPH) they will all become time-competitive with air travel, once the Homeland Security theater wait times are factored in.

    This society is so far behind the curve on infrastructure it's scary.


    Great post.

    This really is a terrific example of how our system has become economically irrational. Super trains are both a profitable valuable outcome in themselves, and a very sensible hedge against very predictable problems (rising fuel prices, increased urban/suburban traffic). That we can't get it done means that we can't get our priorities straight at all.


    Donal...I would rather see money put into updating and upgrading our current rail service. A service that is used daily by many, many people. In stead of a high speed rail service that would be very expensive to build and very expensive to use and there for only used by those with the highest incomes.


    My impression is there's a chicken-and-egg thing going on. Old, winding, dilapidated track is not up to carrying high-speed trains. The combined cost of rebuilding the system and buying high-speed rolling stock scares everyone off, so the whole thing just gets patched.

    Just a thought: In the most likely corridors, as track needs replacing, why not upgrade to high-speed standards? Straighten where necessary, reinforce bridges, lay continuous-weld rails (if that isn't already standard). Riders will benefit, because even regular trains will be able to run comfortably at full speed.

    When in a few years the entire corridor is high-speed-ready, you can replace the trains, at a more manageable capital hit. That seems to me to make more sense than putting high-speed trains on track that's not up to the task.


    Only Canadians could come up with something so reasonable and practical.

    We're watching you, pinko!


    It wouild indeed be expensive to build, yet that expenditure would also be a wealth-generating multiplier, offering large numbers of highly value-additive jobs that could not be exported/offshored, because you can't outsource infrastructure - it has to be done in place.

    People would also be needed to operate and maintain both track and rolling stock, attend to stations and interact with passengers/customers both at stations and on board.

    And the work would extend beyond even those.  Someone has to make the steel for the rail and the cars.  Someone has to build the stations.  An infrastructure providing power, be it electric or something else, will need upgrading or production.

    China is doing it. 

    It's also worth considering that this could and would be amortized over quite some time, and I suspect the bonds issued to finance it would be worthwhile investments.


    I just read up a bit on France's TGV network (Train à Grande Vitesse). The basic technology is 30 years old, but its trains easily top 300 mph.

    The TGV system turns a profit of well over $1 billion a year. And fares are comparable to those for slower trains traveling similar routes. This is sounding better all the time.


    The trains and public transport in France and the rest of Europe are also heavily subsidized. Say government subsidy in DC now a days for anything except the financial industry and you will get nothing but dirty looks.


    i always like to read some good and informative blogs and this blog is also so good and helpful. thanks for taking time to discus this topic.


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