TimDanahey's picture

    Jobs: The Problem Government Doesn't Want to Solve

    There isn't a single news story these days that isn't framed around the word "jobs." Political parties make their cases couched in phrases such as "job killing" or "job creation." They tell us unemployment is a persistent problem that will take years to solve. The truth is they don't want to solve unemployment.

    Look up the workforce age demographics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were 139 million people employed in 2010. Over the next ten years, there will be 27 million people under the age of 29 years old currently unemployed or entering the job market. Over the next ten years, there will be twenty million working and unemployed people reaching retirement age -- a difference of 700,000 additional workers per year.

    If job growth occurs at a historically meager 1% per year, it will generate 1,400,000 new jobs or more per year -- a surplus of 700,000 jobs as compared to new workers coming online. The shortfall will be filled by the absorption of six million unemployed workers that cause the unemployment rate to be 9.6% rather than the tolerable 4%. That absorption will end in 2014 as everybody is fully employed -- thanks to demographics.

    If the government took steps to stimulate job growth, it would create the one thing corporations and government dread the most -- wage inflation. Commodity inflation is okay since its benefits accrue to corporate interests but wage inflation accrues to the people. Government policies for the past thirty years have deliberately resulted in "wage insecurity" desired by Alan Greenspan and less than zero real income growth among average working Americans. We are the hardest working and most productive citizens on earth but the rewards from our efforts the past thirty years have not trickled down to us.

    This is why the economic stimulus was enough to support the economy and profits but only half the size necessary to create jobs. Furthermore, there was no "Buy American" clause in the stimulus act which allowed much of the funds to go overseas rather than to workers. China's stimulus package didn't even allow money to be spent at foreign companies in China. They were strictly "Buy Chinese." Avoiding wage inflation is why many in Congress want to raise the retirement age to 69 years old and say social security needs bailed-out despite being perfectly healthy for years to come. Our borders remain porous because illegal immigration and low-wage earners relieve pressure on the need to raise low-income wages. Avoiding wage inflation prevents the repeal of legislation that actually encourages outsourcing of jobs to China and India. The funds from the current $600 billion quantitative easing are going into commodities and offshore assets rather than to American jobs. Why? The answer becomes clear.

    The next battle will be the "War on Unions" shaping up this year and next. There are political reasons for the battle but there's also wage inflation issues. Government workers used to be paid less relative to the general working population in exchange for greater job security. Since average American workers' incomes have been left behind during the country's economic growth, government union workers' wages are now being targeted as objects of envy and scorn. The argument is framed as government waste and inefficiency but the truth is their incomes kept pace with economic growth while our incomes fell below the curve.

    Other unions are also being targeted as obstinate impediments to corporate growth. They are accused of hurting America's competitiveness around the world and wildly inaccurate hourly union wages are reported on the news. All of this is far from the truth. Love them or hate them, unions are the last organized resistance to defend our jobs and incomes.

    98% of the American workers are together in this economic boat. As long as we needlessly argue amongst ourselves about which direction to row, our incomes will remain adrift. Our best option is to educate ourselves, listen to each other, and work together to encourage government to promote policies that benefit the incomes of all Americans.

    Comments

    Commodity inflation is okay since its benefits accrue to corporate interests but wage inflation accrues to the people.

    I just never thought of it that way. But I recall coming across this theory years ago.

    Amazing take on a conspiracy to keep the peasants down!

    I know that commodity inflation is what the powers that be count on.


    Brilliant post.  The division between wage and commodities inflation is telling.  As is the division between income taxes and taxes on investments in the tax code.  Seems like somebody wants to keep America's workers just a bit insecure at all times.  It is the ultimate form of coercion.


    Well Destor as you well know, the more fear the more output!!!

    The overseer knew as much.


    I had quoted Kurt Cobb in a previous post to the effect that commodity inflation leads to net deflation because paying more and more for heating oil, gasoline, and food pulls money from other sectors of the economy. So the people that do have money can pay less for all the gizmos the rest of us can't afford because we're spending our stagnant wages on more expensive commodities. The rich win again.


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