Help stamp out economists

    By Flavius on Thu, 05/30/2013 - 12:21am |

    For three years two Harvard Economists have enjoyed not only appreciative reviews of their Article  “This time is different” but, better, have watched as its implied policy recommendations have been implemented in country after country to the misfortune of the millions of Greeks,Italians, Irish   and ,yes, Americans  put out of work in an economic storm  .that only Andrew Mellon could have loved. (Joke: A Mellon to H, Hoover “Could you give me a nickel,I want to call a friend?” H.Hoover “Here’s ten cents,call both of them” )

    Finally the days of wine and roses in Cambridge came to an end as some economists from the much less prestigious U.Mass examined the raw data base on which R&R drew their conclusions  and found one little problem , those conclusions didn’t follow from that data.

    (Reminded me of the unhappy day a supervisor remarked  : “ Flavius, your balance sheet doesn’t balance” . Oh well, nobody’s perfect.)

    Not having a dog to kick , R&R responded to having their error displayed in Macy’s window by doing the statesman- like thing:they attacked Paul Krugman for being uncivil. Not sure where incivility ranks in the hierarchy of Economists’ misdeeds, I’d be interested in how the millions of unemployed Greeks, Italians, feel.

    On another front Dean Baker responded to a New Yorker article this way

     

    .   Seriously, who did we think was making big bucks in high tech, great philanthropists? As a general rule it is reasonable to assume that people who make lots of money in any industry, whether it finance, manufacturing, entertainment, or anything else, are primarily concerned with making money in that industry. I don't know whether we should blame them for that fact, but we certainly should blame policy types who then imagine that these people's success at money making gives them great insight into how we should run society.

    Bill Gates got incredibly rich because he has sharp elbows and perhaps was willing to bend the law more than his competitors. The same applies to Mark Zuckerberg. That doesn't mean that both are not smart and hard working people, but it does mean that they may not be the best people to determine our education policy or how best to lift the world's poor out of poverty

    We here in New York have had our own lesson as Mike Bloomberg reformed the City's education so the only children who could be sure of getting a good education were those who made sure they had two successful parents, white ones.

    Comments

    The facts don't follow the data?

    The conclusions do not follow the data?

    Well said Flavius!

    I dunno.

    The two 'greatest' mayors cited by the MSM include Giuliani and Bloomberg!

    Ha

    Get the homeless and the hookers off the damn streets!

    Ha

    Interesting blog Flavius.

    But I must go to bed now!

    Back later!

     


    by Richard Day on Thu, 05/30/2013 - 1:38am

    What? I thought you never slept.


    by Flavius on Thu, 05/30/2013 - 6:01am

    There was a spirited debate regarding Reinhart & Rogoff's rebuttal on Econbrowser. Essentially, Hamilton and supporters tried to say This Time Is Different was genius, the mistake was small and therefore shouldn't obscure their main point. Detractors point out that the mistake led to the flawed 90% threshold, which was cited over and over to support austerity measures, said use of which R&R did little to discourage.

    I can understand that reasonable people may wonder whether we can borrow and spend our way out of trouble in an economy that may not be growing. But as a matter of public policy, austerity and/or cutting services to the poor while cutting taxes on the rich, tend to be very regressive responses.


    by Donal on Thu, 05/30/2013 - 11:40am

    Thanks for the link.  I read some of it but when I got to someone's argument that austerity would have to continue until 2030 with fiscal cliffs needed to keep the general public from increasing social programs ,  I lost interest. The economics is much more interesting with out ideology.  My feeling is why should we make it painful when there is other less damaging ways to people.


    by trkingmomoe on Fri, 05/31/2013 - 12:24am

    Yeah, like many sites, Econbrowser has several posters whose responses could almost be written by an ideology-bot.


    by Donal on Fri, 05/31/2013 - 7:56am

    Dean Baker had a good review of WaPo's story, today, about the closings of schools in Chicago.http://www.cepr.net/index.php/beat-the-press/  It pointed out that the 3 schools that Arnie Duncan had closed and reopened to improved them and declared them a success is being closed in this round of closings.  My county just laid off 113 teachers.  There is to be some schools closings but they have not announced which ones yet.  They will do that this summer.  I am sure they will focus on the poor for cuts.      There is a good post by Josh Bivens on the austerity drag to the economy.  http://www.epi.org/blog/relief-austerity-drag-hard-economy-2013/  He points out that it will drag hard in 2013 and 2014.  His charts and grafts are interesting and he explains how the current boom in stocks points to a difficult year for workers.  The worst is to come.


    by trkingmomoe on Thu, 05/30/2013 - 11:49pm

    Here's what's been happening to New York City's schools 

    o In New York city “Between 2006 and 2010, the amount spent (by the school system) on arts and music equipment and supplies was cut by 79 percent

    o nearly one fourth of all public schools have not a single art, music, theater or dance teacher on staff

    o at Brooklyn Tech (where Flavius'  grandson goes) 24 percent of the students were black in 1999-2000, compared with 10 percent during the 2011-2012 school year

    o At Bronx Science, the share of black students dropped from 9 to 3.5 percent over the same period.

    o….only nine have been accepted into (Stuyvesant) for next year.

    o In 2006, 53 percent of students in (the gifted and talented programs) were black or Hispanic; now less than one-third are

    o in 2010, when the city claimed a 61 percent four year graduation rate, only 21 percent of all students who had entered high school four years earlier were college-bound. In 2011, only 13 to 15 percent of black and Latino students were

    ………and 

    o The Quinnipiac public opinion poll in January found that only 18 percent of the city’s voters want the next mayor to have the unilateral control over schools that Bloomberg has wielded

    …..From UNEQUAL SCHOOLS   by Leonie Haimson and Diane Ravitch,in the Nation, May 6thedition.

     


    by Flavius on Fri, 05/31/2013 - 7:16am

    I am sure you are proud of your grandson.  Brooklyn Tech is very challenging.  I have seen it listed in national high school rankings several times.  My neighborhood ghetto high school is also a very challenging school.  Only it is not completely focused STEM but a IB school.  Right now Southeast has 69% minorities and 30% are Latino some Dreamers.  My grandson graduated in 2011 and that class got 5 million in scholarships.  He is attending college locally.  I talked him out of borrowing so he could go away.  I was worried that IB would be on the chopping block with all the cuts but they are keeping it even though the county pretends that it is not a high performance school.  Currently they praise the local charter high school which don't even offer honor classes or a language as the best this school system has to offer.  Southeast offers Mandarin Chines as one of the languages.  Southern politics can get scarry sometimes. Some of the funding is coming from a international fund so they can't take it away.  I have 2 younger grandkids that will be ready in a couple years for IB so I made sure to show up at the school board meeting this week.  They are bright, one is in gifted the other brings straight 100's on her report card.  The school has gotten darker in the last few years because of a program called school choice.  Some  in the neighborhood has opted to send their kids to whiter high schools.  But I don't care how dark it gets, my 2 blue eyed kids are going so they can go to college.  I think the current politics has been so destructive to education.   


    by trkingmomoe on Sat, 06/01/2013 - 4:32am

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