The Hamas/Fatah unity discussions

    By Flavius on Tue, 05/03/2011 - 5:15pm |

    Just  so  there is  some alternative to the  Netanyahu prononcements it's worth recognizing that there are other Israeli views which are  much more balanced. As usual they can be found on bitter lemons.

    The two Israeli views in the link are from a former assistant to Prime Minister Barak, and  a retired general. One of the two Palestinian views is from a former minister in an Hamas govt.

     

    http://www.bitterlemons.net/

    .

    The most likely scenario, of course, is the one no one can predict or define: zigzag progress toward unification, repeated crises, threats of resignation, Israeli intervention (for example, to prevent the Hamas-dominated Palestinian parliament from reconvening). ……………… Netanyahu has a new excuse not to negotiate and will have a new arrow in his quiver when (and if--he may no longer perceive the need) he presents new policy ideas later this month…………….

    Broadly speaking, there are three schools of thought in Israel regarding West Bank-Gaza reunification and Fateh-Hamas reconciliation. One is that they are a necessary precursor to a successful peace process, insofar as Israel needs a negotiating partner that can truly speak and make commitments for all Palestinians, even if this means tolerating Hamas until it somehow modifies its positions. A second school of thought holds that we are better off with a divided Palestinian polity, with Hamas quarantined in Gaza, even if this means a three-state or "three entity" solution or no solution at all, because it is impossible to coexist for long with militant Islam. A third argues that Hamas can still be vanquished by force and the Hamas genie put back in the bottle.

    There is undoubtedly some merit to both the first and second arguments. The third is very problematic and probably counterproductive. But lest we forget, Fateh and Hamas did not split because of Israel, and they have not decided to reconcile because of Israel. As with the broader, volatile situation around us in the region, here too we are best advised, at least at this point in time, not to interfere.-Published 2/5/2011 © bitterlemons.org

    Yossi Alpher is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet publications. He is former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University..

     

    Comments

    Interesting range of views. I would take issue with Alpher's throwaway line, "Fateh and Hamas did not split because of Israel ... ." That glosses over Mohammed Dahlan's abortive coup against the duly elected Haniyeh govt., clearly orchestrated by the U.S. and Israel, that led to Fateh being booted out of Gaza. Alpher knows better.

    What's even more interesting than four pundits is the confidential report of the Israeli Foreign Ministry's career analysts, who basically say Bibi and Lieberman are wrong:

    http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-diplomats-view-hamas-fatah-deal-differently-than-netanyahu-1.359706

    Also interesting that someone thought, after it was ignored, that it was worth the risk of leaking to Haaretz.


    by acanuck on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 2:17am

    Thanks for the information. . My exposure to Israeli affairs is restricted to reading bitterlemons.(and Amoz Oz and David Grossman) , Not a choice , just inertia. I really should read haaretz.

    I don't feel  I'm restricting myself  to too narrow  a  range of views since bitterlemons regularly include representatives of the settlers.And my object is not to immerse myself but to be reasonably informed.  .

    I wonder about the clause in the agreement requiring the replacement of the prime minister  I became aware from Alpher's comments here a couple of years ago -long before it was covered by the Times(or the FT or NPR)  of his success in demonstrating that the Palestinians could  conduct a rational administration..What happens now I wonder. What role will he play? Who'll replace him?

    As for Bibi and Lieberman for someone with my superficial knowledge they arrear to have just taken the mantra Israel doesn't have a negotiating partner and without mssing a beat. switched the conclusion from  because the Palestinians are divided  to because the Palestinians are unified. 

    Not that that makes them unique among politicians  



    by Flavius on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 7:51am

    The pact calls for an interim government made up of technocrats, not partisan politicians, to be chosen by mutual agreement. PM Salam Fayyad would qualify as such a technocrat, but Hamas views him as way too much Abbas's boy. There's a West Bank billionaire who has been suggested as a possible compromise successor. I find it hard to imagine how he got to be a billionaire without being totally corrupt, but there you go.


    by acanuck on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 3:21pm

    Witch hunt coming on that?  Eeek.


    by we are stardust on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 7:58am

    Thanks for bringing the myriad voices at bitterlemons to our attention Flavius.  Here's my profound take: the reconciliation works if it works, and if it doesn't, it doesn't.  We shall see and hope for the best.

     


    by Bruce Levine on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:54am

    We'll see. 

    When I finish To the end of the Land. I'm going to post a review  here.  Dagblog could use a good book review. Or even one by me.

    .


    by Flavius on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:12am

    That would be super Flavius.


    by Bruce Levine on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:32am

    As we should have expected, Bruce, this arranged marriage is off to a rocky start. Ynet has Abbas and Meshaal squabbling over who got to sit at the head table, who'd speak first and for how long, etc. Imagine when they get down to substantive issues.

    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4064654,00.html

    On the positive side, Hamas TV resumed broadcasting in the West Bank, and PA TV did the same in Gaza. Can they stick to respectful, reasoned disagreement or will they simply spew polarizing propaganda? Most Palestinians, it appears, are skeptical.


    by acanuck on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 3:13pm

    I was going to say that I hope it succeeds if it's a good thing and that it doesn't if it isn't.

    But I decided that it was incorrect to be flippant about something that could be so important if it works.

    So I  hope it works.


    by Flavius on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:31pm

    So do I. But most Palestinians would forgive the flippancy, I think; for many, unity talks -- like peace talks -- are a joke that's been told once too often.


    by acanuck on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:44pm

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