cmaukonen's picture

    Going Out Of Business



    The Blockbuster Video store in the strip mall in front of my complex just closed and the Borders down the street has done the same. The local malls still look like ghost towns and I really do not know how much longer they can hold out.

    But the stock market is going up so everything is just peachy.....or is it ? As Mike Whitney shows, the banks - remember the banks, they facilitated this whole mess - are still in trouble big time.

    And, here's the corker; the banks are still broke. Aside from the fact that housing prices are falling sharply (increasing the banks loan losses) and that there will another 2 million foreclosures in 2011, the real condition of the banks books are still hidden from public view. Here's a glimpse from the WSJ's Michael Rapoport,:

    "During the financial crisis, investors fretted over "toxic," hard-to-value assets that banks were carrying. Those fears have faded as bank profits have rebounded, loan delinquencies have declined, and bank stocks have soared 25% in the past five months.

    But banks still hold plenty of the bad assets that once spooked investors: mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other risky instruments. Their potential impact concerns some accounting and banking observers.

    In part due to those bad assets, the top 10 U.S.-owned banks had $13.8 billion in "unrealized losses" that have lasted at least a year in their investment portfolios as of Sept. 30, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Such losses are baked into banks' book value, but don't get counted against earnings as long as the banks believe the investments will later rebound. If those losses were assessed against earnings, it would have reduced the banks' pretax income for the first nine months of 2010 by 21%, according to the Journal analysis.

    Unrealized losses are just one way in which the troubled assets obscure banks' true financial condition, accounting experts say....Another problem: Even when banks do take real charges because of their securities losses, accounting rules allow them to keep some of those charges from hurting their bottom line.


    In other words the banks earnings reports ate a tissue of lies. Built on nothing. 2 Million foreclosures. That's is more than twice the number of houses that exist in all of Summet Co. Ohio (Akron) and Cuyahoga Co. Ohio (Cleveland) combined. So we are essentially back to where things stood in 2007.

    One last thing: Along with the accounting shenanigans, the toxic assets, the non performing loans and the gigantic leverage, the banks are also hiding millions of REOs "off market" to keep housing prices from plunging even further. This "shadow inventory" will continue to be a drain on bank resources while keeping house prices "bouncing along the bottom" for years to come. Here's a clip from an article by Mark Whitehouse:

    "Banks' vast pile of foreclosed homes doesn't appear to be diminishing. That's a troubling sign for the future of the housing market.

    Back in April, this column tallied up all the foreclosed homes sitting in banks' inventory, as well as the "shadow" inventory of homes in the foreclosure process or on which owners had missed at least two mortgage payments. At the time, we reported that at the current rate of sales, it would take 103 months to unload it all.

    Over the past six months, that number has actually risen. Banks managed to pare down the shadow inventory, but largely by taking possession of foreclosed homes. As of September, they owned nearly 994,000 foreclosed homes, up 21% from a year earlier. The shadow inventory stood at 5.2 million homes, down 7% from a year earlier. Grand total: 107 months of inventory.

    The numbers aren't exactly comparable to the April analysis, as the providers of data have changed. The inventory data now come from RealtyTrac, the shadow inventory data from LPS Applied Analytics, and the sales data from Core Logic. But no matter how you slice it, the housing market faces almost nine years of foreclosure hangover.....

    The mountain of foreclosed homes casts a long shadow." ("Number of the Week: 107 Months to Clear Banks' Housing Backlog", Mark Whitehouse, Wall Street Journal)

    The dismal plight of the housing market hasn't changed much since Whitehouse wrote this article a couple months ago. The bleeding continues and prices are falling fast. If Obama doesn't come up with a remedy soon, the banks will be back on the front steps of the US Treasury with their begging bowls in hand. You can bet on it.

    Bottom line: The people who caused the financial crisis have reassembled the same system piece by piece paving the way for another massive meltdown.

    And our financial situation is being systematically ignored by Washington and everyone else in hopes it will just magically disappear like a soap bubble.  It has been my experience thought that problems like this do not fix themselves and like an abscessed tooth, just get worse until it is beyond saving.  Like a car teetering on the edge of a cliff, they are just hoping that a bird does not decide to perch on the hood ornament.  The question then is not if the next financial crash comes but when.

    Party On.

    Comments

    One other thing. If anyone says Bailout next time, they will be chased up a tree and fire set to it. Rest assured.


    I would not be surprised if The Fed's money printing (0% Discount Window, and Bernanke's QE2)  is primarily aimed at stopping the bleeding in housing to help the banks. The trouble is, the only stuff going up in price so far is food and oil which leaves people with less money to buy a house, and world wide these price increases destabilize some countries leading to more shortages of food, oil and other commodities.


    Thats not all. The original TARP was not about Main Street or the consumer or the little guy. It was about paying of bets. Matt Taibbi - bottom post.

    Jim,
    I got that from my friend Nomi Prins’s book, It Takes a Pillage. Nomi, who used to be a VP at Goldman but is now one of the leading authorities on where the bailout monies have been spent and why, frequently makes the point that the bailouts were more about paying off bets than they were about stabilizing the economy. This is from her second chapter, “This Was Never About the Little Guy”:

    Here are some numbers for you. There were approximtely $1.4 trillion worth of subprime loans outstanding in the United States by the end of 2007. By the first quarter of 2009, there were forclosure filings against approximately 4.4 million properties. If it was only the subprime market's fault, $1.4 trillion would have covered the entire problem, right?

    Yet the Federal Reserve, the treasury, and the FDIC forked out $13 trillion to fix the housing “correction”… With all that money, the government could have bought up every residential mortgage in the country – there were about $11.9 trillion  worth at the end of December 2008 – and still have had about a trillion left over to buy homes for every American who couldn’t afford them. 


    Seems the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression wasn't enough to convince the public the GOPer's support banks and business over the public they serve. With all the political turmoil going on in Congress and the States it seems we're right back where we started

    In my opinion, the only way to get out of the rut the GOPer's got us into would be if The Boner and the GOper's in the House refuse to pass the budget insisting on that $100 billion cut and default on Treasury bond debt obligations. And I sincerely hope the tea-baggers are leading the charge on all fronts. Furthermore, I'd even support Sarkozy's efforts to removed the dollar as the base currency for all international transactions. In short, I really want the GOPer's to really give the public exactly what they're promising without any exceptions. And let's include governors and their legislators killing off unions, priviatizing schools, roads, parks and recreations areas, and other public service entities all in the name of lowering taxes.

    Why?

    It would make the US crash real hard. So hard it would be difficult to pick up the pieces and put it back together again.

    For what purpose?

    It's the only way to prove once and for all to those who are avid followers of GOPer's their policies haven't the bouyance necessary float on water and once implemented they sink at the constant rate of an object in free fall.

    Once at the bottom, the rest of us will have to pick up the pieces to rebuild what was destroyed, but at least the voice of the right would be silenced simply because they put us in those dire straits to begin with.


    Oh but Beetle...both the Republicans and the Democrats did learn a very valuable lesson from the Great Depression and the the crash of '29.

    That if it happens on YOUR watch, you are political toast for the next 40 years or so.  So you do what ever you need to to prop the economy up and make it Look Good so when it does go into melt down, it will be when the other guy is in power.


    And that's why I want it to crash and burn with their names all over it. To drive the point home 40 years in nothing more than a blind of the eye.


    Oh no worries there Beetle. With Wall Street still trying to make money out of nothing, massive collusion and corruption in this matter in both Wall Street and Washington, fighting imperialistic un-winnable wars with out end that are bleeding the country dry, our leaders crying "Damn the torpedoes. Full speed ahead !" and our energy being depleted at a record rate - this outcome is a study in for gone conclusions.


    You can't be serious here, Beetle. You're advocating mass suffering on a huge scale, just so you (or we progressives) can be ... proven right.

    Beyond that, what I do agree with is that it should be harder for a minority party to block the majority from governing as they had campaigned. The two main political parties in the US - and the political debate quite generally - have become so childish-slash-deranged in tone and content in good part because they will never be expected to do as they say, nor be held accountable for what they do.


    Obey, I'm serious as a heart attack.

    It's their game and their rules. So they either follow through or shut up.

    They know they have the advantage, but The Boner and McConnell just aren't sure if they can control the events once the ball starts rolling. That's why I want the tea-baggers to push harder, forcing the GOPer leadership to go down the road they're sure will lead to their political destruction.

    And it not about me...it's about politics being the property of commerical industry rather than the public. We're at a point where it may be easier to start all over again from scratch. Just need to make the point one political faction's ideas and policies was so far off base it brought the nation down to its knees. The longer it takes to fall, the harder the fall will be and longer to recover.


    Hell, why not a cultural revolution too?  

     



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