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Brad DeLong is a professor of economics at Cal. Megan McArdle is a hack in the employ of the Atlantic (for some reason).
Megan, meet Professor DeLong.
The real treat here is that McArdle comes by DeLong's blog to defend her stupidity in comments. DeLong, again, tries to clue her in. The fun comes when she finally realizes her simple (yet gargantuan) error and has to finally utter the resounding mea culpa of, "Oops."
Megan McArdle supposedly holds an MBA from the University of Chicago. I don't know what they teach MBA students there. I do know that Megan McArdle would have found it difficult to pass her exams in an undergraduate economics program without having gained an understanding of present value calculations. Perhaps that's why she majored in English Literature instead.
However satisfying an abiding fascination with Ayn Rand might be, it is not an education in economics.
EDIT: I thought that I should add the context here, which is political. The argument has to do with the twin issues of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the fate of Social Security. The GOP and their patrons are pushing hard to keep the Bush tax cuts, especially for the wealthiest Americans, and to reduce or eliminate (privatize) Social Security. Obama has convened his group on the latter issue, lending his gravitas to the present sense of urgency.
Even though Social Security isn't in the kind of red ink that detractors will insist, you don't even have to get into that to see what's going on here. McArdle makes her weird statements about present value because she's trying to come up with a way to argue that letting the Bush tax cuts would not pay for future liabilities in Social Security. The problem with her argument is that figuring out what both the additional revenue from the expired tax cuts and the potential future liabilities for Social Security are require doing the same kind of present value calculation. Except she's claiming that you can only use the calculation to figure out one, but not the other.
And then goes on to make other weird claims, like that the government can't save. But then she is reminded that it can, to which she protests that government can't securitize debt. Except for when she remembers that it already does that a whole bunch.
Seriously, the upshot is that she is a shill for people who want to take your money. And her weapon is opaque arguments that feature a lot of exasperated nonsense. And phrases like "all else ceteris paribus."
So, yeah. Kochs and Ayn Rand and libertarians. I hear those keywords rake in the hits these days!
And if you want to know more about present value, you can take a look here.
EDIT 2: Krugman on the GOP plan:
It’s hard to overstate how destructive the economic ideas offered earlier this week by John Boehner, the House minority leader, would be if put into practice. Basically, he proposes two things: large tax cuts for the wealthy that would increase the budget deficit while doing little to support the economy, and sharp spending cuts that would depress the economy while doing little to improve budget prospects. Fewer jobs and bigger deficits — the perfect combination.
By Ismail Kahn, New York Times, May 23/24, 2012
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — A Pakistani doctor who helped the Central Intelligence Agency pin down Osama bin Laden's location under cover of a vaccination drive was convicted on Wednesday of treason and sentenced to 33 years in prison, a senior official in Pakistan said.
A tribal court here in northwestern Pakistan found the doctor, Shakil Afridi, guilty of acting against the state, said Mutahir Zeb Khan, the administrator for the Khyber tribal region [....]
By Sergei L. Loiko, Los Angeles Times, May 23, 2012
MOSCOW — Stiff new penalties aimed at opposition protesters were given preliminary approval Tuesday by Russian lawmakers loyal to President Vladimir Putin, the target of mass rallies and demonstrations before his March election victory.
The bill, which opposition parliament members termed draconian and protested by threatening to file out of a legislative session, calls for fines of up to $50,000 and up to 200 hours of community service for organizers of rallies and demonstrations that grow violent or exceed the approved number of participants.
The sanctions were approved on first reading by parliament's lower house, which is controlled by Putin's United Russia party. They mark a return by the Kremlin to a tough stance against critics after concessions during the recent election campaign [...]
Also see:
Russians back Putin, strong leadership
Washington Post, May 22, 2012
A Pew survey of 1,000 Russians found that President Vladimir Putin is well-liked by more than 70 percent of citizens, especially older adults.
Associated Press, May 21, 2012
HAVANA — It was all sunshine, smiles and celebratory speeches as officials marked the arrival of an undersea fiber-optic cable they promised would end Cuba's Internet isolation and boost web capacity 3,000-fold. Even a retired Fidel Castro had hailed the dawn of a new cyber-age on the island.
More than a year after the February 2011 ceremony on Siboney Beach in eastern Cuba, and 10 months after the system was supposed to have gone online, the government never mentions the cable anymore, and Internet here remains the slowest in the hemisphere. People talk quietly about embezzlement torpedoing the project and the arrest of more than a half-dozen senior telecom officials.
Perhaps most maddening, nobody has explained what happened to the much-ballyhooed $70 million project....
By Tamasin Ford in Monrovia, Guardian.co.uk, May 22, 2012
Husbands, not strangers or men with guns, are now the biggest threat to women in post-conflict west Africa, according to a report by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) released on Tuesday.
The IRC report, Let Me Not Die Before My Time: Domestic Violence in West Africa, based on data collected over 10 years by the IRC in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Ivory Coast, said domestic violence is the "most urgent, pervasive and significant protection issue for women in west Africa" [.....]
By Lolita C. Baldor, Associated Press, May 22, 2012
WASHINGTON -- Uncle Sam may not want you after all.
In sharp contrast to the peak years of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the Army last year took in no recruits with misconduct convictions or drug or alcohol issues, according to internal documents obtained by The Associated Press. And soldiers already serving on active duty now must meet tougher standards to stay on for further tours in uniform.
The Army is also spending hundreds of thousands of dollars less in bonuses to attract recruits or entice soldiers to remain.
It's all part of an effort to slash the size of the active duty Army from about 570,000 at the height of the Iraq war to 490,000 by 2017. The cutbacks began last year, and as of the end of March, the Army was down to less than 558,000 troops.
For a time during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Army lowered its recruiting standards [....]
The first thing I wish to know after reading some 'expert opinion' is:
WHO IS PAYING THIS PERSON?
Good post!!
I have an abiding contempt for McArdle, not just for her economic illiteracy, but also for her often morally repulsive perspective on issues. Yet now, actually the fact that she - unlike everyone else on the right - apparently can reach a point of acknowledging error, especially one so embarrassing, almost makes me want to forgive her all her other faults.
Almost.
Isn't present value more finance than economics? From what I read during and after the financial collapse in 2008, very few economists understand finance (or accounting) all that well but they argue among themselves anyway.
Not that I am defending Megan but why are schools allowed to credential people with a Masters if they have not earned a Bachelors. Sure there are prereqs but .... Far and away the best comment on that issue at Brad's:
As someone with a Masters degree (computer science) that's different from my undergraduate degree (physics), it's not that unusual in the engineering/sciences. (I also have a Masters in astrophysics, but surprisingly, there are very few jobs requiring such a degree.)
I realize it is not that unusual. What I am saying is that maybe it should be.
Then again, our whole for-profit education credentialing system is fubar.
I think it should be encouraged rather than discouraged, providing adequate safeguards are in place (which might be lacking in the cases you're thinking of). For example, before I could earn a Masters in computer science, I had to demonstrate that I had, you know, mastered it. When I first entered the program I took a test to prove that I had a basic Bachelor's level knowledge of the material, and then I had coursework requiring depth and breadth of knowledge. I'm tempted to point out that I also kicked butt on my comprehensives (the year I passed them, only 3 of us did so, out of a field of 14), but that was actually for the PhD program, not for the Masters.
In the engineering field we refer to this as cross-disciplinary studies. In the business field, however, it might simply be known as "padding your resumé".
Accepting prerequistes from a related field for a Masters makes more sense than Megan's English Lit BA does but I am still not convinced that test scores are adequate admissions prereqs.
Disclaimer: Based on my personal work experiences, I believe that generally speaking MBAs are a bane on business. Far too many of them make unnecessary, unproductive and unprofitable changes to businesses simply to justify their own jobs. They have too often made my life less pleasant than it might have been otherwise so I may be a little biased on the subject.
Engineer, eh? Did you see this:
Why Are So Many Terrorists Engineers? - http://nyti.ms/cc8lYA
"It's a fair cop."
If I were a "real" engineer, I'd bristle at the inclusion of "fake" engineers (software engineer, civil engineer) in that analysis. Of course, since I'm one of the "fake" engineers, I have no such recourse.
In short, no. Present value is taught as a part of microeconomics. Also, finance, at least as an academic subject for undergraduates, is probably more properly viewed as a concentration within economics rather than a separate subject. Much of what is taught in finance courses is based on the fundamentals taught in economics and accounting courses. Also, at least at my university, finance courses are taught by the economics department. I'm not sure what you read that lead you to believe that economists generally don't understand finance or accounting.
MBA programs don't require a BA in business (which many universities don't even offer) or in any particular major. There are entrance requirements for mathematics aptitude, but as long as you can demonstrate said aptitude you can apply regardless of your major.
It's probably fair to say that the University of Chicago dominated economic theory in America in the post-war era, in no small part due to Milton Friedman. However, the last several decades have given rise to a sort of schism, typically dilineated along the lines of "fresh-water" (like Chicago) and "salt-water" (like Cal) schools. The names listed by the commenter from DeLong's blog are all big UofC names.
But the "salt-water" economists (Krugman, Baker, Stiglitz, Akerlof, Schiller, etc) were the ones who called the housing bubble. The "salt-water" economists were largely saying (like Obama's boy Goolsbee, another UofC alum) that there was no bubble.
As for McArdle, she does have a bachelor's degree - it's just in English Lit. She also has an MBA, for which she had to take some economics classes. If you really want to dissect things at that level, anyone with a BA in economics has more exposure to that material than someone with an MBA, because the MBA program also requires courses in accounting, management, business planning, etc. From that perspective, McArdle is someone with less than an undergraduate education in economics, but she's arguing with a PhD professor.
And she seems to think she's just going to talk over his head.
Business schools offer majors in other areas than Economics including Finance, Accounting, Management, Marketing among others. So an Economics degree requires some finance courses. Guess what. Finance degrees require some economics courses. They are just separate specialties.
Also, I doubt economists use PV and FV calculations multiple times daily as bond and mortgage traders or investment advisers do. Of course, nowadays, mostly the computers calculate them automatically but still -- no way do professonal economists Excel* them.
And how many economists carry one of these around with them?
I read the economists. The ones you mentioned and others. And I worked in FIRE for 30+ years so I have something of an insider's view of Finance. All during Summer 2008 I kept expecting the leading chatterers to get to the heart of the matter but none even got close until Gary Gorton's book and FCIC testimony earlier this year. The housing bubble pop was an effect not a cause of the financial collapse. I hope to eventually put together a post about it but it way complicated. Maybe even more complicated that Fracking.
Oh about economists and accounting. I was thinking of MMTers when I wrote that.
* pun intended
Well, your original comment was that you thought PV was more economics than finance. Now you're saying you doubt economists use it multiple times daily. I suppose that all depends on who you're talking about and what they're doing. PV is just a way to compare values at different times, so you'd use it anytime you needed to know that. But that seemed to be a lead in to you saying something about economists not understanding finance, which still had me puzzled.
Now it seems that you're saying it's really a financial event and that economists who understood enough about it to predict the impending crash have only begun to understand it. That may be so, but you'd have to start by explaining how the financial collapse happened, as financial collapses aren't spontaneous events even if they are causes and not effects of other events.
Okay, maybe my opening sentence could have been clearer (I phrased it as a question to be polite) but no way did I say it backwards.
As for explaining how the financial collapse happened. Did you read this part of my comment just above?
Skimming and commenting don't mix very well. I know, I've done it myself.
Yeah, I read that, but it's not illuminating. So, hopefully I'll get to read it in the future, but for now your chicken-and-egg claim remains as it is.
Maybe now I will not have to write a post explaining what I think was the cause of the Panic of '08. Via Tyler Cowen I see that Gary Gorton has a new paper out explaining what happened and how. Arnold Kling comments as well. Hope you find these illuminating.
Note the biggest bubble of all was money itself -- that global glut of savings Bernanke warned about.
Ugh, and she can't pull it together to just admit she's wrong and move on. She just hates Social Security and will throw whatever arguments she has to at the wall to see which'll stick.
For what it's worth, McArdle's arguments aren't meant to be discussed among those of us who think and have knowledge of basic economics. They're meant for tea-baggers, birthers, Palinista's and other republican rejects who hold republican generated myths close to their hearts and look for reassurance their belief in the myths are recognized by those whom they entrust their faith to. So it's pointless to argue against a make believe whim that has no subtance, but enjoys a large public approval as a political fact that needs to be dealt with.
As a proud holder of an undergraduate English degree, I'm upset that McArdle is devlauing my degree, too, We are not all incapable of doing arithmetic! Some of us understand that an order of magnitude difference is a serious thing! And some of us (although maybe not me) have the common sense not to make loud pronouncements about stuff we don't understand.
McArdle's so intellectually slipshod, it's scary. Her lack of basic math skills (such as, say, division) is a baleful wonder to behold. The fact that the result will clearly be off won't faze her, because she seems to have no intuitive sense of numbers or proportion.
I first noticed this a year ago, where she was huffing and puffing about New York teacher's unions, and declared that "about 5% of the teacher's in the system" were drawing paychecks for nothing. Elementary math would have told her that the number was below 2%. So would elementary reading skills, since the article she was quoting actually cited the figure "1.8 percent."
She's just not smart.
Yeah, the debate around her has pretty much congealed around "Team Evil" and "Team Stupid" to put it in Daily Show parlance. Of course, I've always been a fan of the "little of column A, little of column B" line of explanation.
The other burning question is why in the hell the Atlantic of all publications chooses to keep her on staff. As a man of letters, I'm sure you're aware of the storied history of said publication. And as Business and Economics editor no less? She can't manage to write a blog post without making egregious errors of basic fact, but she's the editor of that whole endeavor?
"The other burning question is why in the hell the Atlantic of all publications chooses to keep her on staff. As a man of letters, I'm sure you're aware of the storied history of said publication. "
Because the people currently running the magazine are shameless wh*res?
Remember, we've seen Martin Peretz turn 'The New Republic' into a mockery of it's past self.