Peak Fuhgeddaboutit

The Post Carbon Institute's Energy Bulletin has reposted an Oil Drum wrapup of ASPO Day One, my ASPO article and a reassuring article from PRNewsWire:

Ricardo Study Suggests Global Oil Demand May Peak Before 2020

Ricardo today announced the results of a landmark multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting in association with Kevin J. Lindemer LLC, and involved participation of some of the world's leading energy and technology companies and organizations. The research challenged the concept that "Peak Oil" will be a supply side phenomenon and predicts that the demand for oil may well peak before 2020 and then fall back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035.

IOW, we needn't worry about fuel prices because we're going to need and want less and less of the nasty stuff anyway. If why that will be true isn't obvious to you, read on.

"The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand," said Peter Hughes, managing director of the Energy Practice of Ricardo Strategic Consulting. "The predominant role of oil in the global energy mix is facing an ever greater challenge from a number of emerging trends. Over the past few years a near 'perfect storm' for oil demand has been forming and gathering strength, created by a preoccupation in many quarters about the availability of future supplies."

The study predicts significant changes in future demand patterns, strongly influenced by global energy security policies, the technology change that they promote, and demographics. Evolutionary changes in automotive technology is predicted to bring revolutionary changes in fuel demand. The increasing disparity of demand between fuel types, diesel volumes are buoyed by heavy duty transportation use while gasoline declines due to increasing powertrain efficiencies and higher pump blends of bio-ethanol. The study also predicts improved supply prospects for natural gas likely to lead to decoupling of oil and gas market.

"As a result, the drivers working against oil demand growth are increasing in number and intensity, with the world's consuming nations increasingly focused on their need to reduce their dependency on oil, supported by an ever stronger legislative framework," added Hughes. ...

Ricardo is correct that there has been a preoccupation about future oil supplies, as demonstrated by this Center for Naval Analyses report:

CNA Military Advisory Board Report calls for a 30 percent reduction in U.S. oil use over ten years to reduce “Grave National Security Risks”

Even a small interruption of the daily oil supply impacts our nation’s economic engine, but a sustained disruption would alter every aspect of our lives -- from food costs and distribution to what or if we eat, to manufacturing goods and services to freedom of movement. A new CNA analysis finds if America reduces its current rate of oil consumption by 30 percent, and diversifies its fuel sources, the U.S. economy would be insulated from the impact of such disruptions -- even in the event of a complete shutdown of a strategic chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, the international passageway for 33 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.

Released at U.S. House and Senate briefings today, Ensuring America's Freedom of Movement: A National Security Imperative to Reduce U.S. Oil Dependence is a report by the CNA research organization’s Military Advisory Board (MAB). Members include some of our nation’s highest-ranking retired military leaders with 400 years of collective military experience. The report calls for immediate, swift and aggressive action over the next decade to achieve the 30 percent reduction in U.S. oil consumption.

According to Ricardo, a range of cleantech initiatives - biofuels, hybrids, EVs, solar, wind, hydrofracturing - are going to be such a technologically successful slam dunk at reducing demand that a lack of supply will be a non-issue.

Peak Cheese, however, still looms - no matter how you slice it.