Illini Top Red Badgers of Courage, Deserve Five Seed

Like a scrappy little kid in a tough neighborhood, Bo Ryan's Wisconsin Badgers win more fights than you expect, and even when they lose, leave foes bloodied and sore.  The Badgers (12-6, 3-3) figured to be even more dangerous than usual, coming off of a string of three tough losses that dropped them to sixth in the Big Ten.  After a loss at Purdue, the Badgers uncharacteristically suffered a come-from-ahead overtime collapse in Madison at the hands of Tubby Smith's resurgent Golden Gophers, before a 73-69 overtime loss in Iowa City resulting from an eyepopping 35-10 free throw disparity in favor of the Hawkeyes.  Beating Bucky 64-57, the 24th-ranked Illini (16-3, 4-2) moved into sole possession of second in the Big Ten, a big step closer to a high seed -- I see a five right now.

While the opening minutes saw an exchange of baskets flowing from crisp ball movement each way, when Mike Tisdale left the game with his second foul at 14 minutes, the game (then tied at 9), began in earnest.  Illinois pulled ahead for two simple reasons:  on the defensive end, Illinois' interior defense was collapsing well, closing out, and getting rebounds that eluded them earlier in the season.  This team is miles ahead of the light-rebounding crew that beat Hawaii without visiting the backboard.  Meanwhile, the Illini have become ruthlessly efficient on the offensive end:  Meacham's catch and shoot three from the left wing to 14-9, his stickback to 16-11, Nique Keller taking his man off the dribble for the highest layup off a backboard I have seen in a life of hoops fandom to 18-11, and a steal and a layup for McCamey.  Bang.  20-11.

The Illini stickiness on defense would make a nine point margin much larger in practice. Cold-shooting and well-defended Wisconsin never got closer than four during the rest of the half, despite the indefensible continuation call at 27-22 (a foul clearly committed with the ball literally one foot off the floor, before Krabbenhoft rose for a banked layup), and a dubious palming call that followed. Apparently, it was too late to recall for the refs from the Iowa-Wisconsin game. In seriousness, I am enjoying the relative evenness this year of calls in the Big Ten, a league that historically puts the thumb down hard in favor of home teams. Road wins at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State are testimony to the fairness of the officiating in this campaign. The halftime tally of 32-25 felt comfortable, especially with the knowledge that Mike Tisdale would be back in the second half.

The second half followed the same pattern of sticky defense. Wisconsin bricks and an Illinois team a world removed from last year's bricklayers. McCamey's three for a ten point lead, and Tisdale collecting his miss for the banked hook put it back to nine. After Tisdale's ensuing block, I was waiting for his further hoop -- his scoring heats up when he's blocking shots -- and sure enough, his hook moved the margin to 39-28. When Davis hit the chippie to extend the lead to thirteen and the Badgers took a timeout, the pattern was unmistakeable: Big Ten opponents cannot stay with the Illini for forty minutes in Assembly Hall. While last year's personnel didn't suit Coach Weber or his style of play, this year's fits like a glove.

The remainder of the game was classic Illinois-Wisconsin. Running in oatmeal.  The lead sat around ten.  Baskets were just so difficult, each possession so laborious and protracted, that the margin always felt safe, not unlike the 2005 Big Ten championship, another game between these teams with a similar margin throughout.  Wisconsin surged late in the person of do-everything senior forward Joe Krabbenhoft, who got to the line, was always around the ball, and created baskets when he couldn't score.  Though Illinois missed four in a row down the stretch, Illini tenacity closed this win out.  Two Wisconsin shot clock violations from tough defense kept the Badgers under 50 until the game's waning moments, and McCamey's buzzer beating jumper to move the score to 54-45 at 4:35 was decisive. The rest was anticlimax.  Wisconsin doesn't throw the long ball, doesn't score in bunches, and true to form, didn't get closer than five.  Illinois marched to the line late as the visitors scrapped, hustled, and fouled, and the Orange and Blue finally subdued the Red Badgers of Courage, 64-57.

These Illini deserve an NCAA five seed as they round the bend toward the last third of their schedule.  ESPN's DailyRPI showed them at 19 before today's triumph, and after today, 5-3 against the RPI top 50, with two of those three losses against top 10 RPI teams.  Joe Lunardi, ESPN's Bracketologist, installed them as a six on last week's bracket, but these Illini figure to pass two five seeds:  Minnesota after its home loss to Purdue, and perennial tourney myth Gonzaga.  Illinois' decisive neutral site win over Missouri (now 17-3, 4-1) and road win at Purdue (now 15-4, 4-2) look better every day.  If the NCAA tournament committee looks at the quality of the floor game Illinois plays (the committee purportedly watches all of the teams), it will see a squad an ESPN writer calls arguably the best defensive team in the country, and will see that Illinois leads the nation with assists on 71% of made baskets, underscoring their newfound efficiency.  This Illinois team should have around 25 wins entering the NCAA tournament, and are closing in on a perfect home conference season no one else is having.  This season of promise holds more with each passing game.

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