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Romney hands Gingrich a populist platform.

by Oxy Mora 1/3/2012 - 12:35 pm

Most likely Gingrich will come in about fourth in the Iowa caucus which might seem like a big success for the Romney Super PACS who tried to bomb Gingrich out of the race, but for that strategy to work against a personality like Gingrich you have to make sure you kill him (speaking metaphorically) not just wound him. A wounded or threatened animal is sometimes more dangerous than one which can run away from you. A man in Florida ran an animal rescue foundation. He struggled to get enough funding to continue his work but would take on any assignment. When he freed a young deer who was hopelessly tangled in a fence the deer kicked the living daylights out of him, he nearly died and had to go on permanent disability. The deer was bleeding but managed to lope off to live another day. So may Gingrich.

If there were anything on this planet which could create sympathy in my mind for a man like Gingrich it would be the use of lethal force to knock him out of the race. I don't care who he is, the use of SP funds to bomb him into submission just doesn't sound fair, but more importantly the carpet bombing may tap into animosity towards the Citizens' United case, which doesn't seem to be anyone's favorite regardless of political stripe. It is significant that this particular exercise by Romney highlights for perhaps the first time how SP money can take down an opponent's lead. It should be shocking to anyone, regardless of right or left.

The reason the Romney folks concentrated on Gingrich is they know the guy is mercurial and dangerous if he gets the right platform. He has the ability to ride the tiger well. In overdoing on Gingrich and ignoring the others they seemed to have flattened out the race. Romney may do well tonight in Iowa, but regardless of that, he has a wounded tiger in Gingrich. Gingrich will now take off the gloves and go directly at Romney in New Hampshire, with the obvious target being South Carolina.

The Citizens United decision is essentially an anti-populist one. Who actually believes that Corporations are people? Who is not astounded by the money spent in Iowa by outside groups? In an interview yesterday, Gingrich clearly denounced the use of outside SP's and announced his intention to use the issue against Romney. The SP blitz in Iowa by Romney's SP's is a new development in the primary race. While the CU decision has been around for a while, this is as good a laboratory experiment as one could devise, and may be the best actual evidence of the significance of the decision. 

I've taken a look at the actual schedule of upcoming debates that are inter-twined in the next three Republican primaries. While pundits have discounted the effect of the debates compared to the SP money which is available to Romney, I'm not so sure the debates aren't dangerous for Romney. There are four debates before the South Carolina primary and to my mind Gingrich can do considerable damage to Romney, despite the negative advertising from Romney. I don't think the tea wing has given up on defeating Romney so they might get behind Gingrich if he gets a bump in the polls. If Santorum lags and the media adopt the wounded tiger and the the issue of SP money, Gingrich will take advantage. It's important to note that the carpet bombing in Iowa occured in the absence of any debates. And as a pundit put it, correctly I think, Gingrich is "copy" and Santorum is not. As a second page media story, Santorum may have a problem maintaining momentum. 

It seems that the populist appeal of railing against Corporations as people and against the devastating effects of secret corporate donations fits well with the other attacks which Gingrich can level at Romney.

Whatever else Gingrich is, he is not a Wall St. guy. Romney is a Wall St. guy, and Bain capital is part and parcel of the anti-worker Wall St. greed which nearly brought down the country. No candidate, and certainly not Obama, has yet tapped into the anger against Wall St---it just looks like a gold nugget waiting to be picked out of the debris and put into one's pocket, and Gingrich just might do it. What does he have to lose? It may close off some funding sources, but the tea wing will love a strong populist rant against Wall St. 

Perhaps the animosity toward CU and SP's is not as strong as I assume among rank and file Republicans, but even so Gingrich has the ability to exploit it and make it an issue. 

With all the anti-Romneys, any decision between them is a case of the "cleanest dirty shirt". So far Romney has stayed above the fray, but I think Gingrich is going to muddy him up a bit. And of course, Santorum will be chipping away at Romney's shirt as well. So, once all the shirts are dirty, it seems that Gingrich has as good a shot as anyone else, despite all his baggage. We have not seen a South Carolina poll recently so I feel I'm flying blind here, but I'll take my chances. 

I have great hesitation in saying anything positive or hopeful about Gingrich. But I think he is the smartest one on the stage, he is a good speaker and he is fast of his feet. No one has really landed a punch on Romney, it'll  be interesting to see if Gingrich can do so. For a political junkie like myself it will be fascinating to see if debate performances can go head to head with Super Pac carpet bombing. 

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This quote from someone who really knows Newt is interesting:

“This has been a great example of best of Newt and worst of Newt,” Dan Meyer, his chief of staff as speaker, said of Gingrich’s December. “He has the vision thing, and he knows how to inspire people. But he was going to be smarter than the consultants, and he didn’t pay enough attention to fundraising and organization, and so when he got pounded, he couldn’t respond.”

by Jonathan Martin yesterday @ Politico

by artappraiser 1/3/2012 - 3:30 pm

Also too, this-Newt on Mitt this morning on The Early Show; chances are high that Newt is still not going to listen to those consultants, he considers that a selling point:

“He’s not telling the American people the truth. It’s just like his pretense that he’s a conservative,” he said. “I just think he ought to be honest to the American people and try to win as the real Mitt Romney, not try to invent a poll-driven, consultant-guided version that goes around with talking points. I think he ought to be candid. I don’t think he’s being candid.”

Edit to add: Which got me thinking back to your title: how can you be a populist if you consider yourself the smartest person in the whole wide world? Not saying it can't be done--for examples, many dictators of history rode a populist horse to power using their own little heads

by artappraiser 1/3/2012 - 3:42 pm (re: artappraiser)

I find that paragraph to be very effective politics.  No amount of Romney money will beat that message in South Carolina or Florida.  Authenticity as a conservative and straight-talker is the coin of that realm, and Mitt doesn't have it.  I am going to love watching Willard Mitt ("My first name is Mitt") Romney founder on the rocks of that message two weeks hence.  You know what hides under those rocks?  Newts.

by Articleman 1/3/2012 - 3:44 pm (re: artappraiser)

Effective politics in a wow-there's-a-typical-playbook-move sort of way. How is this different from what's been leveled at Mittens ad nauseam by his competitors since the start of the campaign? Seems to me that has pretty much been the foundation argument of every flavor of the month to come along.

Even assuming super-impact, Romney's campaign strategy from the outset was predicated on losing in South Carolina, (plus Iowa, BTW ... which is a gimme from his campaign's perspective; setting up the potential for a stronger entry into Super Tuesday than they'd hoped) and doing poorly Florida. I don't see how a long-planned-for outcome impacts the arc of the election in and of itself unless Gingrich starts to move voters in a state that Romney's strategy is counting on (which I'm not seeing anyone propose just yet).

You seem pretty emotionally invested in your predictions ... want to go in solid on Newt for the ultimate win? I'm ready to pre-first-caucus bet on Romney.

by kgb999 1/3/2012 - 7:05 pm (re: Articleman)

Since SC and Florida are winner take all, after NH Mitt wouldn't pick up any delegates.  And all the while the other candidates are going to turn their attention to Romney in ads.  Including Ron Paul which from I hear wants anybody but Romney to win the nomination.  So from now to Super Tuesday it will Santorm-Paul-Gingrich relentlessly going after Romney.  If he can't deliver a resounding victory on Super Tuesday he is going to have to slug it out in even more states - more negative ads against him.  And this can only help Obama. 

And as they're pointing out right now on MSNBC - Romney's 23% in Iowa just so happens to match the national polls - that place where he seems to be stuck (except in NH - one of the least church going states in the country).

by Another Trope 1/3/2012 - 10:45 pm (re: kgb999)

I don't buy Maddow's line that Paul is an anybody-but-Romney.

Very hard to see how this virtual tie is Excellent.  News.  For.  Romney.  Maybe it's first guy to 23 wins.  At minimum, Romney is going to have to get through without getting garroted.  Gingrich is a pit viper of extraordinary hostility and mendacity. 

This is going to be cool.

by Articleman 1/3/2012 - 10:50 pm (re: Another Trope)

Gingrich is a pit viper of extraordinary hostility and mendacity.

Run away! Run away!

by Genghis 1/3/2012 - 11:58 pm (re: Articleman)

Someone call Miss Marple! This man has been garroted with a pit viper!

by Doctor Cleveland 1/4/2012 - 12:02 am (re: Articleman)

What can I say, you walk through an open door with a big stick when you get a chance.  I was on the metaphor mixing team in college.

by Articleman 1/4/2012 - 1:45 am (re: Doctor Cleveland)

Okay Oxy, I hereby render unto you the Dayly Line of the Day Award for this here Dagblog Site, given to all of you from all of me for this gem:

He struggled to get enough funding to continue his work but would take on any assignment. When he freed a young deer who was hopelessly tangled in a fence the deer kicked the living daylights out of him, he nearly died and had to go on permanent disability. The deer was bleeding but managed to lope off to live another day. So may Gingrich.

I

I do feel that newt is more like a junk yard dog.

Which brings me to this observation.

Matthews and so many  others today are attacking Mitt for trashing Gingrich.

But all I see Mitt doing (through his PAC's) is calling him a junk yard dog--which he is! hahah

 

by Richard Day 1/3/2012 - 5:07 pm

I'd find this line of attack more plausible to gain traction if the bulk of Gingrich's current funding hadn't come from mega-donations to his PAC. He's distinctly not in a position to attack here without getting slammed with hypocrisy unless the financing profile within his own campaign changes considerably.

This analysis also seems to ignore that the teams of Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum all invested heavily in negative advertising against Gingrich - giving full credit for all negative impacts on Gingrich in a multi-candidate race to actions by Romney; which does not appear to be accurate.

Also, Ron Paul has been tapping in to the dissatisfaction with Wall Street from the get-go. I realize that for whatever reason it is common practice to imagine that a trivial dismissal of him by the pudocracy means his actions are not impactful ... but reality is that to embrace an issue owned by Ron Paul this cycle, Gingrich will have to successfully take it from him ... with Ron Paul holding considerably more money to work with at this point.

A big problem I see with the underlying assumptions going into much of the current analysis is maintaining the "anti-Romney" fallacy. This is a mischaracterization of the GOP electorate's psychology, IMO. Even now, by and large the electors are perfectly happy to support Romney when it comes down to defeating Obama. There simply isn't nearly as a strong aversion to him as you imagine within the various constituencies.

To me, it really seems Newt is in a pickle. I don't see where his base of support is going to solidify from. Santorum really has the ability to mess up his game in South Carolina in a big way  (so I'm not sure Newt will have the luxury of going full-bore against Romney as he's bragging without leaving a serious flank exposed). He's already dropped from top-tier discussion for the moment. If Newt can't prove an ability to put up the votes in any of the opening races, he'll be facing a narrative hole of epic proportions.

Unless something changes, I say Newt can't win the nomination in the current situation. With the current arc, Obama is going to face Mitt Romney (with an *outside* chance on Ron Paul ... where obviously, the path for Ron Paul is ... ummmmm ... not exactly a likely road). Desi made an early prediction of a Romney/Paul ticket (facing Obama/Biden); which is the first I've heard that seriously proposed.

Curious. On the Obama side, do you see him sticking with Biden ... or trying to shake it up maybe with someone like Hillary as VP?

by kgb999 1/3/2012 - 6:15 pm

No drama Obama - his idea of shaking it up is William Daley.

We're in for one long boring campaign.

by PeraclesPlease (not verified) 1/3/2012 - 6:20 pm (re: kgb999)

Oh, come on ... it's gonna be great. First Romney will attack over Obamacare ... then Obama will counter-attack on Romneycare. Then we'll move on to the next issue where there is zero difference between the candidates.

by kgb999 1/3/2012 - 8:02 pm (re: PeraclesPlease)

No mud-wrestling?

by PeraclesPlease (not verified) 1/3/2012 - 8:27 pm (re: kgb999)

Thanks. As far as Newt's own PACS, good point. But Romney's personal connection to the PAC ROF does, I think, stand out. Of course all of this is speculation, but here's what I think. 

I was going to title this post, Gingrich's final conversion. I think there is a turning point here for Newt, a catharsis if you will. It gives him a chance to clear the slate and retool. What is good for him is that he has definitely been taken to the wood shed. In the waves of public psychology I think there is a "o.k. he took his medicine like a big boy, let him go on back out and play with the other kids."

I think we still underestimate how the conservative wing loathes Mitt Romney. One can look at this as the fight between the candidates, but that overlooks what the conservative wing wants or doesn't want---and coalescence seems to be the key. 

As far as Hillary is concerned, I give it a 50/50. This is far out but I listened to Rose's interview of the new center party effort. It looks like they will get on many state ballots and have an online nomination process. Some of the founders of this group, I think, were Hillary supporters. As I said, far out, but if Hillary were to make some news there it might force Obama's hand. I'm a complete novice on the statistics side of all this but my impression is that Hillary would help a lot in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

by Oxy Mora 1/3/2012 - 6:48 pm (re: kgb999)

Personally not seeing much evidence for "loathing" directed at Romney, my guess that may end up one of the more over-hyped narratives of the cycle. The only candidate that appears to produce a genuinely visceral negative reaction in other Republicans is honestly Newt (and in a totally different way, Ron Paul).

Can't decide what impact I think switching Veeps mid-stream might have. It doesn't seem like a move an administration projecting a "happy with the team and our accomplishments" aura would be expected to make. Biden has pretty strong ties in Ohio ... no idea about Pa. The more I think about it, the more I think maybe Obama's hands might be tied even if Hillary would technically be a stronger running mate. Dunno. When would Obama have to decide that stuff .... the convention?

by kgb999 1/3/2012 - 7:57 pm (re: Oxy Mora)

Great analysis and assessment of potential outcomes. 

The one thing missing element is Ron Paul who it seems is aimed at keeping Mitt from getting the nomination.  So he could be using his war chest to attack Romney in the next few weeks in a manner that reinforces Newt's attacks.  If Santorum joins in, Romney could do pretty poorly in SC and Florida (where Romney is already starting his advertisement).  And this could seriously damage his ability to sweep through Super Tuesday.

by Another Trope 1/3/2012 - 10:53 pm

Isn't everyone aimed at keeping Mitt Romney from getting the nomination?

Maybe Paul will be happy to settle for Veep.

by kgb999 1/4/2012 - 1:02 am (re: Another Trope)

Rick Santorum now leads by 79 votes, it is 8:41 pm PST.  This does not bode well overall for Mitt Romney and now he also has an avowed enemy in Newt who I think is going to kamikaze Mitt! This could be a Republican bloodbath. Why it was just yesterday when Mitt announced they were winning Iowa! Woops... I wonder if he will win Iowa?

With Ron Paul out there soaking up 20% of the vote, this is probably going to remain constant, he has a hard core following, and the Not-Mitt, Rick S, not to be confused with Rick P, with 25%, Gingrich basically endorsing Santorum, and South Carolina is on the way, a place where Mitt Romney might not stand a chance.

One thing for certain, Rick Santorum is pro-life, and in South Carolina that means something. Rick S. got lucky, candidate after candidate flaming out on their own accord. If he makes few mistakes he has a good chance of attracting a bigger organization from the establishment, they will raise big money quickly. Campaign folks are currently fleeing the Bachmann, Huntsman, Perry and probably Gingrich campaigns, they have a place to go, the Rick Santorum Campaign.

Here is one other thing I know,  Huntsman is out, he needs to quit before he damages his reputation any further.

What a long strange trip this has been indeed.

by tmccarthy0 1/4/2012 - 12:43 am

Yeah. I'm sure the guy who skipped the Ames Straw Poll is crying in his beer about tying for first in Iowa.

Huntsman didn't campaign in Iowa at all. His play is for NH. His reputation is fine.

Santorum ... unquestioned big winner of the night.

by kgb999 1/4/2012 - 12:59 am (re: tmccarthy0)

And Perry is out, like I said campaign workers are fleeing the Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich and Huntsman campaigns, (Huntsman doesn't stand a chance in NH either) and that helps Rick Santorum the most.  And now it is after 9:00 and Santorum continues to lead, if only by 37 votes now with 97% of the vote counted.

South Carolina is going to be interesting. And this primary season is going to be a rollicking rodeo of confusion and I for one intend to sit here on the sidelines with my popcorn to watch and tweet the circus.

There is another debate this week, and rest assured Newt Gingrich will not only participate in this debate, he will use his debate time to attack Mitt Romney relentlessly.

by tmccarthy0 1/4/2012 - 1:11 am

Fleeing denotes leaving in haste. Perry's folks actually just got fired. Haven't seen any reports of Huntsman's guys leaving?

I saw someone mentioned (I think it was here, but I don't recall who) the thought that both Santorum and Huntsman were likely motivated by wanting marker placed for 2016 (assuming an Obama win ... 2020 otherwise). I think that's probably right; Romney can't be Romney anymore, Huck's done. It makes sense. In that case, the point of their candidacy and the view of success could be rather different. And the motivations of the supporters as well ... it becomes a case of forgoing crummy alternatives to make an investment in a leader who will potentially provide larger returns on your goals in the future. There are all sorts of reasons for supporting and voting for politicians beyond a binary metric hate thing ... our society and political milieu would be the richer for it if more people would bear that in mind.

SC should be interesting. You are probably right about Gingrich going after Romney in the debates. Going negative on Romney in NH drives up Gingrich's negatives in SC, Santorum just has to look presidential and not step on his willy so he can play nice guy while the ad wars crank up down South. Santorum really fixes Gingrich's wagon something awful ... he get money out of this win ... Newt really doesn't. Paul *hates* Gingrich - I guarantee he'd prefer Obama, I'm betting he'll mostly leave Santorum alone. Romney's out of the picture ... unless his SuperPAC keeps hammering Gingrich (which would leave Gingrich having to attack Romney while Santorum plays nice guy ... dunno if Romney would really want to help Santorum like that though). Yeah that one will be fun.

On the Obama side, I disagree with Gore. Until a clear frontrunner emerges, he can't really launch his campaign. Romney has been ignoring everyone and focusing on Obama - if Obama turns to him as a challenger it solidifies his image as the one taking on the President, and I'm pretty sure Obama would rather face any other member of the field besides Romney. So he's still pounding sand trying to figure out stuff to do that breaks through the noise while all of the Republicans are taking turns framing him in various unflattering ways.

by kgb999 1/4/2012 - 1:57 am (re: tmccarthy0)

I think McCain actually helped Gingrich more than he helped Romney. McCain blasted Citizens United and the amount of money coming in through Super PAC's. If Gingrich plays off of McCain's remarks, he, Gingrich looks less like a whiner and complainer. 

Romney would respond with something like, "This is politics, if you can't take the heat, etc"

That sets up Gingrich. "Like your surrogate said, it's a bad law."

Romney "I don't agree with everything McCain says".  Gingrich: "It's a bad law, but it is a law. The point is that your PAC consists of people close to you and Bain Capital. How could anyone be so naive as to think the PAC is making independent decisions? 

 

by Oxy Mora 1/5/2012 - 2:27 pm (re: kgb999)

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