The next entry in the list of historical precedents shattered: Iowa caucus strategy demands strong ground game.

Cruz is universally acknowledged to have the ground game and Trump is relying on essentially self-motivated first time caucus goers who are, in essence, the voting equivalent of The San Bernardino Two.

With Trump's campaign (as part of the triumph of the pull over. push media paradigm, pace Marshall McLuhan) Twitter disintermediates the get out the vote infrastructure, eliminating the need for middle management.

So when we apply this metric to the population in which such a cult-mind, media centric, fan boy/girl following might have to fester in order for the electoral lone wolf equivalent of shooting up a holiday party of your friends and co-workers, ie,  causcussing for this buffoon to manifest itself--viz. the crowds we have seen at his rallies-- we may be forgiven for thinking that Trump will win Iowa.

As an aside, in the old "Would you have strangled the infant Adolf Hitler?"vein,, maybe someone at SXSW should have strangled Twitter in its crib, but that's another story.