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In U.S. politics, never bet against the incumbent

by William K. Wolfrum 5/5/2010 - 8:30 am   |

Yesterday, Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina held primaries. And while it is a small sampling group, whether it was a primary for governor, the U.S. Senate, or the House, 100 percent of incumbents running for re-election won their races.

Again, it’s a tiny sampling group, but those who predict wide-spread turnovers of seats in November should take heed. On average, incumbents tend to win more than 90 percent of the time. Even in 2008, 94 percent of House incumbents and 83 percent of Senate incumbents won their races.

So while the media plays up the horse race in the months leading up to November, remember – the smart money is on the incumbent.

–WKW

Crossposted at William K. Wolfrum Chronicles

Although I don't contend your main point, I think the problem with this data is bigger than just it being a tiny sampling group. It's also a very unrepresentative sampling group, as incumbents in primary races tend to win an even greater percentage than incumbents in general elections. (No, I don't have any statistics for it, but I assume no one's going to challenge that assertion.)

by Atheist (not verified) 5/5/2010 - 3:27 pm

I do not challenge Atheist's assertion. Nor do I challenge Atheist's refusal to contend Wolfrum's main point.

by Genghis 5/5/2010 - 3:59 pm (re: Atheist)
It's mostly the media feeding on the Tea Party nutjobs' frenzy about "voting out the Obamacare people." And, of course, Republican politicians will no doubt run on that very platform. I don't think it's going to be as significant a threat to Democratic incumbents as the Republicans fathom; Glen Beck can cut and paste footage from several events to make it appear as if hundreds of thousands attend the crackpot festivals, but those numbers are severely inflated. It's an election year.. Take any political reporting with an even larger grain of salt than usual.
by MJS 5/9/2010 - 2:59 pm

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