Michael Wolraich's picture

    Funny Math

    From Friday's debate:

    Jim Lehrer: Are there fundamental differences between your approach and Senator Obama's approach to what you would do as president to lead this country out of the financial crisis?

    John McCain: Well, the first thing we have to do is get spending under control in Washington...You know, we spent $3 million to study the DNA of bears in Montana. I don't know if that was a criminal issue or a paternal issue, but the fact is that it was $3 million of our taxpayers' money.

    I'm sure that the bear paternity routine had the audience rolling on the floor the first time John used it, but someone please explain to him that jokes go stale after several hundred repetitions. (And after you've explained it to John, please explain it to my dad, thanks.) But let's take his point seriously and consider the impact of the bear study on our economy.

    Case 1: Bear Study
    Cost: $3 million
    Percentage of budget*: 0.0001%
    Average cost to taxpayers**: 3 cents


    3 cents? Thanks, John. I'll put it in the bank as soon as I get it. That should give Citigroup some capital to work with. But I'm not being fair. John McCain isn't suggesting that canceling the bear study will save the economy. He wants to cut all the earmarks:

    Case 2: Earmarks
    Cost: $18 billion
    Percentage of budget: 0.6%
    Average cost to taxpayers: $194


    There's a campaign slogan for you: Elect John McCain, Save $194. Of course, that would be disingenuous because the tax burden isn't distributed evenly. Most taxpayers would save less than $100. How about this? Elect John, McCain, Cut the Budget by Half a Percent. Still doesn't really resonate. Maybe a visual representation*** would be more effective.

     

    Um...maybe not. But never fear. John McCain has a ready answer:

    John McCain: I hear this all the time. "It's only $18 billion." Do you know that it's tripled in the last five years?

    Holy, moly! At that rate, in five years, it will be $54 billion. That's a lot of bear studies.**** But hold on a sec. That $18 billion in earmarks figure is from 2005, which was three years ago. In 2008, there have been $16.5 billion in earmarks. Huh. So over the past five years it tripled, but over the past three years, it declined. Can we get some clarity here? John?

    John McCain: I suggest that people go up on the Web site of Citizens Against Government Waste, and they'll look at those projects.

    Great idea. Let's go.

    Case 3: Triple the Pork
    2003: $22.5 billion
    2008: $17.2 billion


    Uh...John? That's not tripling we can believe in. Don't get me wrong. I'd be happy to get back whatever money the government manages to save from your reforms. Or it can keep the money and pay down the debt--I'm down. But what does any of this have to do with the economic crisis? We're facing a $700 billion bailout and a potential recession of historic proportions, and you're telling us jokes about a $3 million bear study. I think you're joking all right but not about the bear study. And I have to tell you, it's not funny.

    P.S. I know that you don't have much patience for economic theory, but you might want to ask one of your economic geniuses about Keynes. Cutting infrastructure spending and pursuing a balanced budget during a recession is generally regarded as a really bad idea. Some food for thought:

    The initial government response to the Great Depression was ineffective, as President Hoover insisted that the economy was sound and that prosperity would soon return...Convinced that a balanced federal budget was essential to restoring business confidence, Hoover sought to cut government spending and raise taxes. But in the face of a collapsing economy, this served only to reduce demand further. As conditions worsened, Hoover’s administration eventually provided emergency loans to banks and industry, expanded public works, and helped states offer relief. But it was too little, too late.

     

    * The Federal budget in '08 was about 2.9 trillion dollars.

    ** About 140 million Americans filed income taxes last year, of which about one third paid nothing, leaving approximately 93 million taxpayers.

    *** Thanks to Mark Thoma for the graphic and HilaryM99 at TPM for finding it.

    **** $54 million would pay for 18,000 bear DNA studies.

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