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Articleman's Twelve: The Mostly Romney Edition

by Articleman 1/29/2012 - 9:17 pm   |

12. I need to get working on that Newt's-going-to-lose mea culpa (a/k/a The Dr. Houseman Column).  Before doing so, will have to write column explaining that Newt is still helping to re-elect Barack Obama.  It will rest on the recent WaPo polling showing that independents have now flipped from leaning Romney over Obama to leaning for Obama over Romney now that Romney is getting defined.  This, as much as the slow reduction in unemployment, is why Obama is just about even on approve/disapprove, which is bad news for Romney.

11.  This NBA season has a major bugaboo:  injuries.  With almost no preseason, and little warning as to when or if the season would start, there are injuries all over the place.  Already, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and Dirk Nowitzki have missed serious time.  The brutal three-games-in-three-days regime (some teams play seven games in nine days) are leading to weird, baseball and hockey-style platooning and skipping of starts.  The games, in turn, lack the offensive flow that comes from longer periods of lineup continuity and more practice time.  But if the Bulls and Heat can get healthy, their showdown in the Eastern Conference Finals will be classic and will determine the champion.  Rose was amazing down the stretch today in a close loss to the Heatles in South Beach, while his top teammate Luol Deng was absent because of (yes) a serious injury.

10.  These athletes have burritos for heads.

9.  For people who find our moderation hamfisted, the Redstate moderation is pretty funny.  Within a recent Erickson thread about why it's bad to be down on Newt for going down fighting under a hard conservative banner, we again see that anyone who suggests voting against the GOP in a general election is subject to banning on sight.  I wonder if they have to wear little uniforms when they comment too.  George Will and Eliot Abrams are bringing down the "ban hammer" on Newt, and while Erick objects to that, his folks are banning others in the thread.

8.  The Giants will win the Super Bowl for the same reason they beat the Patriots in Phoenix four years ago.  Defense wins championships.  And their quarterback is supremely clutch, and far better than he was four years ago, even though he's not quite Tom Brady.

7. I have defended Romney (and will again, I'm sure) against illiberal Dems banging on his being Mormon as being a reason to vote against him.  I don't like that because it's antidiversity, antipluralism, and we need to get away from religious qualifications for public office.  It all amounts to respecting the negative right of others to freedom from interference in, or scrutiny of, their private religious practices.  But reading today that Mitt and his family have posthumously "converted" his atheist father-in-law to being Mormon strikes me as really offensive.  Pluralism requires respect for the beliefs of others.  In his personal life, Mitt Romney has shown that he will not show nonMormon beliefs the very respect that I have argued  -- in the name of tolerance, diversity, and the positive values of liberalism -- others should show his Mormon beliefs.  Like most everything I know about Willard Mitt Romney, this sucks.

7. Hey Mitt:  try carpet-bombing with PAC ads an incumbent President already well-defined in the public's mind and able to spend more than $500MM against you in a few months.  Eking out modest primary victories over the likes of Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich is single-A and double-A ball.  Willard is about to find out what the big leagues are like, and before he even steps on the mound, he's apparently going to grind under his heel the motivated and populist wing of his party to get there.  This is going to be fun.

6.  I attended the Fiesta Bowl this year, which was an exciting 41-38 overtime game, Oklahoma State upending Stanford.  Several things.  First, I had no idea how obnoxious the Stanford band is.  Cringeworthily patronizing rich kids jeering at the state schoolers.  Yecch.  Second, Oklahoma State's wide receiver Justin Blackmon is amazing.  Never mind that he's a bit short.  All he does is find the ball in traffic, keep his balance absorbing hard contact and spinning off it, and outrun folks.  He's going to be a great NFL wideout.  Third, Andrew Luck is all that as well.  The churlish, city-betraying Irsays don't deserve another all-time great QB, and in Luck, they have at least a very good one, and I suspect a great.  He was 27 for 31 against a great OSU team, and that while his best wideout missed the bowl game with injury.  Fourth, Stanford's first-year coach David Shaw coached a perfect game for 59 minutes.  The playcalling was clever, run and pass were well-mixed, and most importantly, Stanford mounted a seven and then a six minute drive down the stretch to keep the ball out of the hands of OSU's explosive offense.  Then came the last minute, when Shaw (with the best college QB in a decade or more hitting 90% of his largely ball-control passes) decided to stop his offense at the OSU 18 and take a knee with one minute and three timeouts remaining.  His kicker missed, but that redshirt freshman (and Luck) deserved better.  Taking the ball from Luck's hands was the dumbest thing I've seen live in a sporting event in my memory, and that's the only reason OSU won the Fiesta Bowl.

5.  Jennifer Rubin thinks Romney is a credible champion of the opposition to the Affordable Care Act.  The amount of tripe coursing through her WaPo blog is a continued debasement of what was once a great newspaper.  Sad.

4.  Lawrence O'Donnell on Iowa caucus night put it well when he said jovially that every candidate for the GOP nomination had some disabling flaw that made it impossible to nominate them.  As in, they're not going to really nominate the guy who championed mandate-driven universal health care to run against Obama.  Add to that the guy who as an independent voted for Democrat Paul Tsongas in 1992 instead of President Bush in the primaries, who was for a woman's right to choose before he was against it, and who is being carried to his party's nomination by a fix worthy of Twenty-One.  I'm sure the Tea Party will happily go along with whatever the GOP Establishment tells it it must do next.  The Tea Party always does -- haven't you noticed?  (Cf. O'Donnell, Angle, Scozzofava).

3.  Here are the states to watch for the fall, and their electoral vote totals:  Nevada (6), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Wisconsin (10), Virginia (13), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Florida (29).  Giving Obama Iowa, and the GOP New Hampshire, Obama needs 47 EVs from that list to win.  Yep, only 47.

2.  Part of Mitt stepping up this week after his horrid debate turns in South Carolina was hiring a new debate coach.  Michele Bachmann's debate coach, to be specific.  Is is possible to get elected President in reliance upon Michele Bachmann's debate coach?  I guess we're about to find out.

1.  I wonder how the good people of South Carolina are going to like voting for that Romney-Rubio ticket.  Get ready for weird outlier polls suggesting Obama can win the Palmetto State.  And if Ron Paul runs as a third-party candidate, he will.

Just a thought, it seems to me that the tea party hasn't been victorious in Florida.  Does anyone think their hot tea party is soon to be iced tea?

And the MSM certainly isn't making much out of Romey's lack of full disclosure on  his financial filings for POTUS candidacy.  

by Aunt Sam 1/29/2012 - 9:37 pm

On your first point, all they had to do was coalesce behind one of Gingrich or Santorum.  Romney will almost certainly not beat Gingrich by more than Santorum's total.  (And speaking of not coalescing, Gingrich could have used to roll out Palin and Cain a week ago, but that would require having at least a scintilla of organization, and Newtzilla hasn't really gotten around to that yet.  May have some time during that Virginia primary week.)  But the Tea faction failed to get behind one candidate, and will thus lose to Romney this week in a winnable state.

On your second point, I disagree.  Mitt's income taxes are much of how Newt won South Carolina.  So the questions have been there.  And more will come on the pre-2010 tax years.  Could be quite a gift to Obama there, but we'll see.

by Articleman 1/29/2012 - 10:04 pm (re: Aunt Sam)

Ah man, you picked the Giants.  Kiss of death.  I really wanted them to win.devil

by kyle flynn 1/29/2012 - 10:40 pm

I hear the Tea Party is supporting the Patriots.  So even if they're better, their support will be disorganized, and Big Blue will prevail, behind a potent ground game in a hard-fought repeat victory.

by Articleman 1/29/2012 - 10:52 pm (re: kyle flynn)

We ESPN told me this morning that the Giants will win because the Patriots' best wide receiver is out with an ankle injury.

If he shows up healthy on Sunday it will prove that this 'inside info' is a sham calculated to improve the Vegas odds.

by Richard Day 1/30/2012 - 4:57 pm (re: kyle flynn)

Ro(mney) Ru(bio) Ro(n Paul) your boat, gently out to sea?

Ruh ro.

by Qnonymous (not verified) 1/29/2012 - 11:46 pm

Zoinks.

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 12:31 am (re: Qnonymous)

Re: #7b (nice baker's dozen), I don't recall any "illiberal Democrats" saying they'd vote against Romney because he's Mormon.

I think most say they'd vote against him because he's a Republican and conservative and a vampire.

And a number of liberals are reading the GOP tea leaves trying to predict who's up and who's down based on their predilections - one of which is religion.

But yes, I do find posthumous conversions a bit weird, kinda like a spiritual mulligan.

Then again, "the moment coin in coffer rings, a soul from purgatory springs" post-mortem indulgences wasn't that different, was it? Did the church ever denounce that practice?

by PeraclesPlease (not verified) 1/30/2012 - 1:58 am

I don't think Mitt's father in law is one of the grateful dead.  Though if it merely took coins, I guess Mitt's got a few of those.

You know I'm talking about the Mormonism-bashing.  We've been round that topic enough times to churn butter or bore ourselves or both. 

Not sure how conservative Romney is.  Redstate sure doesn't think he's conservative.  Neither does Saint Sarah.  Cain and Perry don't think he is.  But sure, he's more conservative than Obama, or the median Democratic voter, however insincerely.

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 2:03 am (re: PeraclesPlease)

And we'll posthumously re-seal your e-mail address to your new account so you can be reborn as PeraclesPlease.  And you won't even have to drop any coins for your redemption.  Wife not included.  Welcome back to the one true website, brother.

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 2:05 am (re: Articleman)

Night of the Living Dead, too cool.

It's a shame Romney's father's not running - could be a unity candidate. Not a lot of those exist anymore. And no, I don't think Romney's so conservative - it's impossible to survive as a presidential candidate as a self-admitted non-radical Republican. 

Curious as to Mitt's thoughts on gutting companies & letting gov bail them out - since he knows the practice intimately, as president would he seek legislation to eliminate the loopholes, or aid & abet the perpetrators?

His comments about not putting the mortgage failures on individuals was rather spot on (some on the left chose to attack him on that, not sure why). Is it a tipoff that he does indeed have a heart? I know way too little about the guy.

by PeraclesPlease (not verified) 1/30/2012 - 5:17 am (re: Articleman)

The comments about not putting the mortgage failures on people is a flip-flop.  He said earlier in this campaign to let it bottom.  Now he's got a case of me-too.

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 10:12 am (re: PeraclesPlease)
I don't think a mia culpa is needed for Florida. This state is in political flux. One out of three Republicans are over 65. The over 65 crowd that enthusiastic voted for Jeb in the late 90's, most are no longer around. Not as many new comers has registered Republican but chose independent while Democrat registration didn't slow down. Florida has really suffered from the depression and foreclosures. Throw in Rick Scott unpopular extreem far right agenda and you have voters rethinking what needs to be done. OWS changed the political conversation and there is a lot to absorb from that. Florida is going to bounce around as the problems come to light. I agree with you the GOP contest has not won over the independents. I enjoy reading you.
by trkingmomoe 1/30/2012 - 6:42 am

We proudly admit our errors.  I think I said Newt was poised to claim FL.  He looked like he would until last Tuesday.  If I predicted he would, I was wrong.  But the bigger point is that the GOP primary voter this year cares less about the candidates than the verdict of last week's other GOP voter.  Newt and Ron-Ron can make lots of trouble and lots of narrative issues for Mitt.  But Newton needed to be 5 or so off to stay strong, and he won't be tomorrow night.  Mitt will be up 12 or more nationally by Friday.

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 10:18 am (re: trkingmomoe)

Nicely done, A-Man. 

After at least a hundred thousands words on the subject of Romney's Mormon faith and its relationship to his potential Presidency, you nailed the clincher---one, which is consonant with Romney's flawed character. Romney's personal life construct excludes acceptance of diverse others whose very tolerance is most vociferous against the pre-judging his own, non-mainstream, Mormon faith.

Besides that, he is a serial transactionalist who secretly speaks French.

And also, according to Newt, "a fundamentally dishonest tool of Wall St" 

by Oxy Mora 1/30/2012 - 11:18 am

Oh, I think Mitt's a pretty honest tool.  :)

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 4:59 pm (re: Oxy Mora)

I still haven't given up on Newt eeking out a victory in Florida.  It is probably wishful thinking, but I really believe Mitt is a 25% candidate.  All the extra percents in the polls are made of uber lukerwarm supporters.  So my theory now is Mitt's commanding lead in the polls is actually a detriment.  Those lukewarm voters will think - Mitt's got in the bag, no need for me to go all the way to the polls and vote.  I've got better things to do.

Moreover, looking at the polls going back to the 23rd, Newt has pretty much hovered around 30%.  Sometime a little more, sometimes a little lower.  From the 29th he has 32, 26,  31, 29, and 25.  Newt's supporters are more committed to him.  So if he can get 32% of the vote...Mitt might might get 36%.  That would mean about 15% to 18% fence sitters.  ....If Newt can take 10% or 11% of them, he eeks out a victory.

Like I said wishful thinking.

by Another Trope 1/30/2012 - 11:10 am

Those lukewarm voters will think - Mitt's got in the bag, no need for me to go all the way to the polls and vote.  I've got better things to do.

Ah, the Putney Swope Gambit.

by Peter Schwartz 1/30/2012 - 2:56 pm (re: Another Trope)

Newt is still up 28-27 nationally, in the face of the Romney Florida surge.  This is kind of weird.  Cain and Palin should help stabilize him a bit.  (I can't believe I just used Cain and Palin and the verbs "help" and "stabilize" in a single thought.)  The really interesting part is how much of a Florida bounce Romney gets, and how firm the floor is for Newt.  This race is hardening as a contest of the Establishment and the base, with the Establishment hitting the airwaves hard. 

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 3:22 pm (re: Another Trope)

I went over to Red State and took a look.  If the commenters there are in any way reflective of the die-hard conservatives, then Newt's current floor doesn't seem so surprising. There a few Mitt supporters, but I get the impression that many will just not vote in the General if he gets the nomination.  Sort of the same thing with the hardcore left - better to have the opposition party in the White House, rather than one of your own who will push the other side's agenda.  If true, this is good news for Obama in those swing states.

by Another Trope 1/30/2012 - 3:38 pm (re: Articleman)

As to #12, I thought your claim was that Newt was going to get the nomination. That you weren't confining yourself to FL.

But in FL, you were right except for some outlier-ish type stuff: 1) Newt's arrogant notion that he doesn't have to prepare; 2) He and Santorum are pulling from the same voter list and Paul, too, to some small extent.

There really shouldn't be room for Newt and Rick on the same stage, except that Rick is more authentically "religious." Perry was completely redundant, as was Cain. And their dropping out didn't help Newt, because they were damaged goods when they did.

by Peter Schwartz 1/30/2012 - 3:04 pm

My claim was the nomination.  It does augur badly for Newt if he doesn't come back to within 5-7 in Florida, given the Romney carpetbombing campaign.  As long as Newt + Santorum > Mitt, there's a chance.  But the next few contests are favorable for Mitt, and if he's got momentum, that could fuel a narrative that it's over. 

Kind of annoying that it's more about fueling narratives than voting.

by Articleman 1/30/2012 - 4:58 pm (re: Peter Schwartz)

Great post. The GOP thing is too volatile for anyone to accurately predict the details, rather than the overall shape. That's the noisiest election date, figuratively or literally, that I hope ever to see.

As for the Giants and the Patriots, I acknowledge the wisdom of your pick but am going to keep holding out hope for my flag-wrapped homeboys. Because if the last Patriots-Giants Superbowl taught me anything, it's that no game matters except the one you're in.

by Doctor Cleveland 1/30/2012 - 6:49 pm

Giants 26, Patriots 24

by Articleman 1/31/2012 - 2:51 am (re: Doctor Cleveland)

I will give you the points for $5.00 (I'm a plunger...)  Tom Brady went to Redwood High at a time when I lived in San Mateo, so he's sort of a home-town hero...

by jollyroger 1/31/2012 - 5:59 am (re: Articleman)

If the SB teams traded quarterbacks, as good as Manning is, this would not be a contest.  I like Brady.  

by Articleman 1/31/2012 - 11:08 am (re: jollyroger)

As the little brother myself, I am rooting for the Giants just so Eli can turn to Payton and say, "One Superbowl ring? Ha! I have two of those."

by Another Trope 1/31/2012 - 11:17 am

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