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Articleman's Five Answers To Five Questions

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Hey, didn't I used to write about politics? With my weekly guest gig on Wednesday morning's KRXA540.com show with Hal (805 PT/1105 ET) coming up (and, cool, Hal will join us here blogging!), wanted to hit some of this week's high points of interest. Before turning all political, I would still encourage everyone to add "That's Not My Name" by The Ting Tings to their iPod. From Arizona, where my weather just utterly rocks (62 this morning at 6 a.m.), here are five questions for the week, and my answers to them...

1. Hillary at State: Who Wins -- Obama or Clinton?

Answer: The conventional wisdom is that Obama has won politically, because he has disarmed a potential political rival, who might work against him in the Senate and upstage him on health care. Some, like Nate Silver, have also suggested that Hillary Clinton is not well-served to join the Obama Administration because she will be hung more with its failures from the Cabinet, and would rise in any event with the Democratic brand in 2016.

I say they both win. Hillary's stature will far exceed anyone else in the Democratic Party in 2016, if she serves as Secretary of State for much of Obama's Presidency. The antiClintonism that carried Obama forward in late January 2008 and forward will be a dead letter, but Hillary's appeal to older voters (a relative GOP strength) and women voters will not be. Obama shows that he deals from strength and confidence (not unlike Lincoln keeping his prominent rival from Ohio, Salmon Chase, in his cabinet), and will add some of Hillary's extensive capital to that of his Administration. No, she can't overshadow or trump Obama. If he is not the most popular and beloved human being in the world today, who is? And Obama gets a strong, remarkably smart, resolute diplomat who even Jon Kyl says is well-suited to this job, and who is respected around the world. This is pure win-win.

2. Lieberman: Is Failing To Strip Him of His Homeland Security Committee Chairmanship a Gross Cave-In?

Answer: Conventional wisdom is that Joe must go. Some Senators in the Democratic caucus are saying so. The blogosphere is saying so. But riddle me this. If some random Republican who chaired a Senate committee wanted to caucus with the Democrats, wouldn't Democrats like that? You'd think so. Look at Joe like a moderate Republican, like Susan Collins. Every further vote in the caucus is strength for the coming votes on health care, judges, aid to struggling industries. Joe is a moderate Republican who votes with Democrats. Just keep telling yourself that. Barack Obama is about capturing moderate Republicans. If he wants to get John McCain's vote where he can, why not Joe Lieberman's? So I say no, it's just playing the political game to win. Which is sometimes distasteful.

3. Why Did Obama Bother Meeting With John McCain?

Answer: Confession. I've always liked John McCain better than I like most national Republicans. His commitment to campaign finance reform, and his wish to tackle immigration, an important social issue both parties shrink from addressing constructively right now, is good and showed real courage. His joining the bipartisan Gang of Fourteen to keep judicial nominations moving forward was too. And guess who likes John McCain about as little as you, hypothetical progressive reader? Lots of GOP Senators, and talking heads, who blame McCain, and his insufficient conservatism, for the rise of Obama. This is insane, of course. But as the GOP retreats further into a rural white male base of overt religiosity, look for Senator Maverick to break with his party at least as prominently on one or two occasions. Barack Obama never fails to look for friends where others would shrink away. Where he can deal with John McCain, he will. And I'm betting he'll be rewarded for that down the road.

4. After All of These Recounts and Runoffs, How Many Senators Will Be in the Democratic Caucus?

Answer: 59. In Alaska, Democrat Mark Begich's election is locked up. Franken looks moderately more likely than not, though wonks take either side (see www.fivethirtyeight.com). But there's no way Jim Martin is going to win that Georgia runoff. He earned a runoff by getting 47% to Saxby Chambliss' 49.8%. This time around, black voters are likely to be a smaller percentage of the total of Georgia voters, cutting into Martin's base, and forcing him to do even better among white voters. More national Republican figures are campaigning in Georgia for Chambliss than Democrats are for Martin. And Joe Lieberman is going to remain in the Democratic caucus for vote number 59, at least until the Democrats get over seventy-five Senators and feel comfortable enough to give up on him.

5. Will Sarah Palin Win the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2012?

Answer: Of course not. This question verges on stupid. Was John Kerry the frontrunner in November 2000? Was Bill Clinton in November 1988? Ask again in two years. From now until then, governors of larger states will have more chances to distinguish themselves, as will Republicans in Congress. On the other hand, if she is, get ready for a Goldwater-level bloodletting. Who knew only Alaska, Utah, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Idaho were pro-American parts of America? Run Sarah Palin and find out!

1,2,3, - I think Obama is GREAT - I like his cool, intelligent demeaner, his willingness and ability to work with the other side, and his forward looking attitude but I just keep going back to his awesome campaign (both primary and general).  If he can run a campaign as phenominal as that I am all for trusting he will make the right decisions at the right time.  Now, even though I have partaken of the kool aid, I can still do a little of my own thinking and I know Obama is going to make mistakes but I will bet a day without caffine they will be few and far between.  As the next Queen of the Universe my answer to one through three is to banish them.  Guess who is President of the United States?

4 Bill Clinton is not going to help Martin.  Obama could.  Excitment could still be built up around that run off.  I don't know.

5 I think it would be the most fun if Palin ran only because I welcome the opprotunity to make fun of losers who will never confront me directly and call me on being a little shit.  The republicans have 2 years to get their act together and decide what to do with thier evangelical base.  It doesn't matter who they run if they can't get the moderate independents. They start to lose their base if they appeal to the moderates.  Which baby to push out of the nest?

 

On 1-3., it's good that the President and the Universe Queen have that separation of powers thing down.  It's good for co-managing, and I think your deference to him is right.  :)

4.  There's so much excitement around that runoff that they're already early voting and no one's even talking about it.

5.  The interesting question raised by what you wrote, splash, is what the Republican Party is independent of the evangelical base.  That is, who is the external frame of reference (well, external to the evangelicals) who will do something with, to, or in partnership with them?  That's really the million dollar question, which, in the absence of it being answered, could lead to a remarkable car crash of a nomination process for the GOP in '12.

A-man, the Republican Party has not always had the evangelicals as their base.  I very well remember when Republicans were fiscal conservatives, small government and rather hawkish.  I believe it was Lee Atwater who went after the evangs. to build up numbers.  Then the evangs took the bit in thier teeth and ran.  Shrub finished off the fiscal conservatives and small govenment people so all that is left is the hawks and evangelicals.  I don't know how long the Republicans will hold on to the concept that the evangelicals are going to save them.  They are going to have to come up with thier own Obama before they get any where now.

I really do wish the Republicans pull them selves together.  I am uncomfortable with one party rule and honestly, it is no fun running when your competition is totally incompentent.  I think we need competion to keep us strong (that is a rather simplistic but I don't know how to phrase it better right now.)

I would like to elaborate a little on my flippent answer from this morning.  I heard Barney Frank on an NPR game show Sunday and they asked him how he could work with people he hated (I'm paraphrasing here) and his response was if you can't then you can't be a politican.  I think he is right.  Obama told us he was going to bring change to our government and bringing, keeping and talking to the three people that have said the some of the worst things about you is change.  Now Obama truely stands head and shoulders above Clinton, Lieberman and McCain.  He approached them not the other way around. Obama wants consences so he can get things done.  We have a black hole war going on and our economy is in the toliet and fast flushing on down.  Obama knows he needs to get things moving and fast.  I have a feeling the future for us is you either get on the bus with Obama or you stand there and wait a really long time for the next one.

One more thing - I have read several places about Obama needs to get a pair and get rid of Lieberman or that he caved and has no spine.  There doesn't have to be a political deal done for Lieberman to stay on.  Lieberman knows full well how he got to stay where he is and he will either go with the flow or get out (by choice or his actions) and he also knows no one blame now but himself.  Taking responsibility for themselves is what makes dipshits implod.

 

I agree that we need opposition, or competition. Without it, we'll just be our own echo chamber of like-minded people who fall all over themselves to agree with each other.

Where I disagree is that it's not fun running when your competition is incompetent. I think it was an absolute blast. 

1. Clinton would be a dynamic, ambitious Sec. of State. That's good. We need someone to bite into Israel and the Palestinians like a rabid pitbull. But I'm afraid of the scandals, infighting, and leaks that have plagued both Clintons since they entered politics. What's the point of even vetting Bill? If he hasn't done something too controversial already, we can be confident that he will soon.

2. You know how I feel about Lieberhate. Ugly team politics and vindictiveness. People can't get past that sense of betrayal. Bad boys must be punished, right? That said, Lieberman is a weenie, and I have always thought so, even when he was our VP candidate. Especially then. Made me cringe.

3. Agreed. The error many made in judging McCain was to conflate lack partisanship with being above politics. He is and has always been extremely political. He obviously was not above lying and lowball tactics. But he really is a maverick in the sense that he's not a partisan. His chief concern is not the Republican party but John McCain. Obama can use that to his advantage.

4. Agree on Georgia and Lieb. Not sure about MN. I'll go with 58 to be contrarian.

5. I completely agree with your "ask again in two years" proscription but disagree with your confident "of course not." Two years from now, Palin may be eclipsed by stronger Republican candidates but not necessarily. If the same quality of bozos that ran in the last primary run in the next one, and if she can avoid embarrassing herself, she's got a good shot.

Can anybody remember the last time the person pegged as the frontrunner 2 years out actually captured the party's nomination? (Not including incumbent presidents, of course.) That's why I wasn't worried in 2006 and 2007, when people said Hillary had a lock on the nomination. It's like the kiss of death--being the frontrunner that early pretty much guarantees you won't win it.

McKinley.

1.  Hillary at State = Obama wins.  Hillary's influence is sidelined on the domestic agenda in the Congress.  They will be merely a rubberstamp.  I'm very ambivalent about Hill heading up State.  It will give her a larger stage, but in deference to Obama's agenda rather than her own.  She's a team player and will be forceful in carrying out Admin policy.  It's insane to think she'd give up a position she'd been elected to in the Senate to backstab Obama in his cabinet, especially since he has the authority to get rid of the Secretary of State at any time.  There's much less in it for Hill at State.  But on the other hand, it will anger Clinton haters Laughing and Bill RichardsonLaughing.  So I am slowly coming around to the idea of Hillary As Secretary of State but for all the wrong reasons.  And if you have any doubt just how sidelined a Sec of State can be in an Administration where the President is just trying to keep his competition close at hand, look no further than Colin Powell.

2. Lieberman - gross cave at Obama's command.  Lieberman is a liberal on basically everything else but homeland and national security.  If in a fit of pique he decided to punish Dems by running to the GOP caucus, he is as morally bankrupt as they come.  I don't believe he would do so, and furthermore, I'd rather reach out to a moderate Republican like Susan Collins or Arlen Specter that is trustworthy and honorable than that slimy putz.  Lieberman has NO standing to be making demands about what he would and will not accept. And this is from someone who has been sharply critical of Obama in the primary.  For me to say Lieberman was out of bounds and unfairly attacked Obama should say something.  I would have called his bluff and let him caucus with a party he disagrees with 90% of the time if that would make him feel more at home.

3.  I never hated McCain, I always thought he was a very decent Republican, even though he was wrong on what I cared about.  That said, McCain's irrelevant in his own party and in national politics right now, much moreso than Hillary.  Which is why Obama's meeting with McCain is pretty meaningless.

4.  I'm guessing 58.

5.  Palin is a no-go for 2012. 

1. is the Tragic Theory of Hillary at State.

2. is very well put.

3. I disagree with, in that if McCain supports something Obama does, it would make GOP opposition to it, whatever it is, seem less legitimate.

4.  So you and G. are picking Coleman.

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