The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
    Deadman's picture

    Ageism may just be the -ism that matters most this election ...

    Many of my liberal friends and family (and since this is New York City, that means basically everyone I know) believe there is no way Barack Obama will win the presidency this fall. Partly, they feel conservatives will at the last minute find or fabricate some scandal that torpedoes Obama's campaign (tho I can't imagine how to top Reverend Wright), but mainly they are convinced that America is just not ready to elect a black man to the top office in the land.

    Now, I'm not about to deny or underestimate the prevalence of racism in this country. I'm pretty sure it has a lot to do with why recent polls show this contest remaining close (With George W's incompetence, a nasty economy and an unpopular war, almost any Democrat not named Hillary or Barack would likely have a double-digit lead).

    But I'm making the call now that it will be McCain's age and not Obama's race that ends up mattering more and giving the White House back to the Democrats. The Arizona senator turns 72 this week, and I've noticed several occasions during this campaign where he is looking and sounding at least that old.

    People who disagree will obviously point to Reagan as evidence that old age doesn't matter, either in terms of voter perception or performance in office. But remember, Reagan was still in his 60s when he was first elected as President; i believe if he hadn't built up such goodwill in his first term, people would have been much more critical of his health and state of mind during his reelection campaign. And in terms of performance, well, there's still a lot of debate about when exactly Reagan began suffering from the early stages of Alzheimer's.

    McCain walks and talks like a man in pretty good shape, and he has certainly handled the grueling campaigning schedule well so far. But he's had a tough life, and there are moments when you can really tell how old the guy is, and it makes you wonder if he's up for the most stressful job in the world.

    The gaffes so far have been minor - slip-ups of the tongue, some general misspeaking - nothing that can truly be called a senior moment. But his health has been an issue - the latest example being a biopsied mole on his face, which raised fears of skin cancer recurrence. And he looks absolutely lost in front of a teleprompter (I'm not sure if you can chalk that issue entirely up to age, but that's how I think a lot of viewers will regard his scripted speeches).

    The rubber will hit the road when McCain and Obama go head-to-head in the debates. Obama isn't the greatest debater - he often strays off message and gets caught up in reeling off facts and stats - but the stark difference between Obama's health and vitality and that of McCain will come through crystal clear through the magic of live high-def television. I guarantee you at some point McCain will stumble and bumble through an answer, spend too much time searching for a name, and the implication will be obvious: He is not fit for the job of U.S. president. The late night jokes will run rampant, and McCain will not be able to slough it off by trotting out his 95-year-old mother or using self-deprecation.

    That may not be a fair response; I know I forget things and do my fair share of stumbling and bumbling, and I'm almost forty years younger than McCain. But that's the thing with -isms: They have nothing to do with being fair.

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