Gallup: Mitt 24 Newt 23 Paul 13

Governors of Utah tend to be conservative.  But yes, he has run toward the center.  The Mormon thing has something to do with it too, no question.

FWIW I wonder how many GOP voters watched HBO's Big Love (probably not a lot, but still.) I think the writers pondered the Mormon relationship with conservative politics a great deal. But they made it into a narrative about a modern polygamist Mormon vs mainstream Mormons not accepting him. Bill Henricksen politically was like halfway between Romney and the anti-Romney's. He was most certainly a hard work self-made man and family values guy right out of Moral Majority, a hardware megastore owner competing with the big corporations. It's just that his type of family wasn't acceptable to "real" Mormons. He won his election to the statehouse based on his politics but in the end was castrated in achieving anything by no one in the statehouse wanting to have anything to do with him and even some plotting against him. Come to think of it, the writers did depict mainstream Mormonism as very corporatist-like, and to them it was Bill who was the cultist.

The ambassadorship was his doubling-down on postpartisanship, which is not tres successful of a bring in the GOP primaries. 

I like your turn of phrase and will tweak it.  He's the Hyper-Romney.

First game of the season is also a misleading indicator that people put too much stock in. But it gives you a different kind of information than pre-season rankings.

I can tell you what I am looking at with a national data point - a base line.  Generally speaking you don't have someone scoring 4% in the national polls going on to win many states.  Once you have the baseline you can start to look at the specific demographics in a particular state. So Romney having 38% in NH makes sense at this stage given he has 24% in the national poll.  But in SC where there is stronger right wing Christian constituency, that 24% is likely to sink to 17%. 

When Newt surged in Iowa there was a corresponding surge nationally.  Ron Paul's rise in Iowa also is represented in the national polls. Even for Santorum there has been a bump in the national baseline.

And I can say I never based my Gingrich success on him cutting into Romney's numbers in NH.  It has been based on his ability to take SC, and then to leverage that into a victory or a close second in Florida.

And Bachmann most likely will drop out after her Iowa showing, so she won't be in SC or NH.  None of those voters will go Romney.  The Christians will go to Santorum, the tea party folks to Newt.

Some are reporting that some within her staff are advising her to drop out now.

What happens if nobody breaks a 25 percent ceiling? Is it like a poker hand where no one hits the minimum?

It is time to dust that one off, I think! 

Here's what the Wall Street Journal had to say:

When former Sen. Bob Dole won Iowa in 1996, his 26% showing was the lowest winning percentage in caucus history. Turnout, meanwhile, was similar to four years ago, defying expectations that Iowa Republicans would turn out in huge numbers.